The NBA's Biggest Surprises of 2020
2020 has come to an end, but the NBA season has just begun. Teams have only played between 3-5 games each, yet it’s never too early to point out some shocking stats that not many saw coming. While team records will always look odd when the season starts, player stats normally don’t look as odd as this year, so far. From leading scorers to shooting funks to stat-sheet stuffers, let’s look at some of the most surprising numbers to end 2020.
*All stats through December 31st, 2020
Surprising 20-Point Scorers
We’ve seen players get off to hot starts before, but we can usually see some of them coming. This season, there have been a few guys that jump out drastically in the PPG list.
CJ McCollum is known as a score-first SG that doesn’t quite play at an All-Star level. That’s been far from the truth through Portland’s 1st four games. He’s looked more like MVP-caliber Damian Lillard than Damian Lillard has thus far. CJ is averaging 28.0 PPG and 6.2 APG while shooting 47.8% from three on a league-leading 11.5 attempts per game. We’ve seen CJ have stretches of play that looked similar, so maybe this will only be a small stretch yet again. Or maybe we’re finally seeing CJ McCollum take that next step as Lillard’s partner in crime.
Jaylen Brown is playing on another level, similar to McCollum. Through five games, Brown is averaging 28.0 PPG while shooting 56.3% from the field and 44.0% from three. He’s averaging nearly 30 points despite shooting just 67.7% from the free-throw line on 6.2 attempts per game. We can also throw Collin Sexton and Terry Rozier in the same ‘shocking scorer’ list as well. Sexton is averaging 25.8 PPG through five games. He’s hitting an impressive 60.0% of his threes and shooting 55.6% from the field. Rozier is averaging 24.5 PPG while shooting 50.7% from the field and 40.5% from three.
And then we have Christian Wood and Jerami Grant. Wood’s breakout was somewhat expected, but not to this extent. He’s been viewed as a potential breakout star for two seasons now after putting up great per36 numbers in Detroit and New Orleans in just 70 games. Those per36 don’t look like flukes, at all, as he’s started the season with 25.0 PPG and 9.3 RPG through three games. Grant’s breakout has been even more shocking. Many laughed at him desiring a bigger offensive role when left the Denver Nuggets to play for the Detroit Pistons. The laughter continued when his contract with Detroit was revealed. Grant, however, is dispelling the non-believers through Detroit’s 1st four games. He’s averaging 22.8 PPG on solid efficiency (47.0/36.7/85.7 shooting splits) and looks comfortable in an increased role. While his play hasn’t helped the Pistons win games, if he can maintain his scoring output above 18 PPG, his 3yr/$60M contract no longer looks so bad.
The Age of the Playmaking Bigs
Big men that can create for others have always stood through league history. It’s not new to see Centers and Power Forwards make some nice passes to cutters and open shooters. However, this season, we’re seeing more big men be lead creators for their teams than ever before. Nikola Jokic leads the league in assists per game with an incredible 13.5 APG through four games. Domantas Sabonis is shockingly averaging 7.2 APG through five games. Julius Randle is averaging 7.0 APG through five games. Bam Adebayo is averaging 5.0 APG through four games. And even Mason Plumlee is amongst the top 50 players in assists per game with 4.8 APG through four games. We’ve never seen big men average that many assists in the same season before. With more and more Point Guards becoming score-first players and big men becoming more versatile, this trend will likely continue.
Some Shooters Just Can’t Shoot
It’s been a rough start for some of the league’s best 3-point shooters. Players that we tend to see shoot above or around the 40.0% mark are shooting well below league average. Luka Doncic and Kelly Oubre carry a lot of that putrid shooting, as they are a combined 3-42 from three to start the season. Though we can expect a majority of these shooters to get out of these slumps as the season goes on, a few of these players are bound to remain under the league average for three-point shooting if they continue to attempt the same high-volume of threes.
Underwhelming MVP Candidates
The season hasn’t been good to a few pre-season MVP odds favorites. Luka Doncic hasn’t been as great as we were becoming accustomed to, only averaging 23.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 6.2 APG while shooting 43.8% from the field, 9.5% from three, and 80.6% from the line. His Dallas Mavericks have started the season 1-3, looking desperate for the return of Kristaps Porzingis. Damian Lillard is putting up below-average numbers, for his standards (23.0 PPG and 6.2 APG) while shooting poorly from the field and three (40.0 and 28.9, respectively). Giannis Antetokounmpo seems to be in “coast” mode with just 22.4 PPG. His rebounding and assisting have remained steady, but he’s attempting just 16.4 shots per game, his 2nd lowest since being an All-Star. He was averaging 18.5 field goal attempts per game for the past three seasons. The most underwhelming MVP candidate has been Anthony Davis. He’s averaging pedestrian numbers compared to what we expect from him. Through four games, he’s averaging 19.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 0.5 BPG.
The month of January will be big for these players as it will begin to separate the MVP contenders and pretenders. Though teams are far from the 72-game mark, going 20 games into the season without playing like an MVP would dig these candidates nearly impossible holes to climb out of. Expect a few players to get replaced in the MVP race in the 1st month of 2021.
Myles Turner is a Rim Protecting/Defensively Disruptive Animal
Though it’s only been five games, Myles Turner has earned a special shoutout for his defensive prowess to start the season. He’s averaging 2.0 SPG with 4.2 BPG, good for top 10 in steals per game and 1st in blocks per game, by a large margin. He began the season with an 8-block effort in a win against the New York Knicks and proceeded to have 3+ blocks in every game but one so far. He’s done this while also going three consecutive games with 2 steals and ending 20 with a 4-steal effort. Turner has been, far and away, the most disruptive defender to begin this season. If he can maintain anywhere near this production defensively, he’ll shock everyone as the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year.