Champions League Round of 16 Predictions
Barcelona - Paris Saint Germain
This will be the most anticipated matchup in the round of 16. The last time these two teams met, Barcelona pulled off a 6-1 victory after losing 4-0 in the first leg.
Since then, Neymar, the unsung hero of that match, joined PSG for a record transfer fee, and both sides have suffered humiliating defeats in the tournament each year since. Adding to the intrigue, Neymar has started lobbying for Lionel Messi to join him in Paris. A January move was never going to happen, but it’s possible that Messi leaves Barca in June as the club is beset by financial issues that make competing with the footballing elite virtually impossible.
Storylines aside, this is a difficult tie to call because Neymar is once again injured. Aside from last season, he’s been injured in the round of 16 every year he’s been with PSG. The Parisians still have Kylian Mbappe and supporting pieces like Angel Di Maria and Moise Kean to call on, but they won’t present the same problems with Neymar not creating havoc on the left flank.
Barcelona has been inconsistent for most of the season but was playing really well up until their Copa del Rey tie with Sevilla last week. Samuel Umiti has returned from injury and help stabilize the defense and now Gerard Pique returns to improve the backline even more. Antoine Griezmann may never justify his huge transfer fee, but he has been better in recent weeks, leading the team in assists with 6 on the season. Manager Ronald Koeman has even finally started playing Riqui Puig after months of pleas from Barcelona fans to give the youngster some game time. But is it enough? I honestly doubt it.
With Neymar, I had PSG waltzing through this tie into the next round, but his injury complicates things. PSG is still capable of winning this match, but Kylian Mbappe is going to have to punish Jordi Alba and Umiti (or Clement Lenglet) to get make up for Ney’s absence. It’s hard to bet against Messi breaking the Parisian’s heart once more, but PSG should eliminate this undermanned Barcelona team.
PSG (6-3 Agg)
RB LEIPZIG - LIVERPOOL
This tie was more difficult to predict a month ago when Liverpool was still playing well enough to lead the Premier League. Since then they’ve lost to lowly Burnley, Brighton, and Southampton before getting shellacked by Manchester City 4-1 and 3-1 to Leicester City in recent weeks. They are playing midfielders at center-back and not getting enough out key summer signing Thiago to make up the difference. Jurgen Klopp conceded the league title last week and it’s hard to feel optimistic about the Reds’ chances to make it out of the round of 16, let alone make a run to the title.
RB Leipzig will be a good test for Liverpool. They’re the second-best team in the Bundesliga this year with a number of creative players making up for the departure of Timo Werner. They have five players who have scored 4 goals this season, including left-back Angelino, who also has 3 assists to his name. Julian Nagelsmann’s team doesn’t have any real stars, though Emil Forsberg, Marcel Sabitzer, Dani Olmo, and Yusuf Pulsen are all good players that apply enough pressure to break teams. Is that enough to beat a wounded but still formidable Liverpool side? This year, it just might be.
RB Leipzig (4-3 Agg)
ATLETICO MADRID - CHELSEA
Chelsea came out of their group with little trouble but the club’s recent struggles are difficult to understand. They replaced Willian, Pedro, and Matt Barkley with Hakim Ziyech, Timo Werner, and Kai Havertz. They shored up the defense with Thiago Silva and Ben Chilwell. They even upgraded their keeper position with Edouard Mendy. Yet for all the improvements on paper, their struggle to play up to expectations ultimately cost club legend, Frank Lampard, his job. Now Thomas Tuchel steps in but he’s got his work cut out against one of the better teams in the tournament, Atletico Madrid.
Atleti is still stingy on the defensive side, but now they’ve added some offensive firepower with Luis Suarez leading the line. The forward is leading La Liga in goals scored so far this year and you’ve got to think he’s got more than enough in the tank to cause problems against Silva and Kurt Zouma upfront. Given the club’s current run of form, I just can’t see Atletico not winning this tie. Chelsea’s only hope is that all of those shiny off-season signings play up to potential and overwhelm Atletico. But if Liverpool’s vaunted attack couldn’t do it last year, I don’t see any reason that Chelsea will do it now.
Atletico Madrid (4-2 Agg)
SEVILLA - BORUSSIA DORTMUND
Borussia Dortmund has been one of the most disappointing teams in Europe for me this year. They have all of the attacking talents you could ask for in Erling Haaland, Jadon Sancho, and Marco Reus. Mats Hummels still anchors the defense, and Alex Witsel is still bossing around the midfield. But they’ve been underwhelming, with shocking losses to Union Berlin, Stuttgart, and Freiburg. The poor play was enough to get Lucien Favre sacked, and Edin Terzic hasn’t really impressed since replacing him.
Meanwhile, Sevilla has been the same scrappy side that they’ve always been. I can’t think of another team that has undergone as much turnover on the player personnel side and at the manager role, yet maintains the same fight that this club has. Since December, they’ve only lost to Chelsea, Real Madrid, and Atletico Madrid in all competitions. Julien Lopetigui was able to add Papu Gomez from Atalanta to strengthen to attack and the club will be buzzing after beating Barcelona 2-0 in the Copa del Rey last week. Sancho and Haaland can apply some pressure, but Sevilla’s form of late gives them the advantage for me.
BORUSSIA MUNCHENGLADBACH - MANCHESTER CITY
This is one of the more intriguing ties thanks to Borussia Munchengladback playing lights out during group play. Now we might have to pare down our enthusiasm after realizing that Real Madrid wasn’t that great (and Shakhtar Donetsk may have been the best team of the 3), but Gladbach, behind the stellar play of Marcus Thuram, could cause problems for a Manchester City team that have shown a propensity to disappoint in this competition, even under Pep Guardiola.
The addition of Ruben Dias and the improved play of John Stones appears to have fortified City’s leaky backline. Man City is putting some distance between themselves and the rest of the Premier League too, going 7 points clear this weekend after beating Tottenham Hotspur. If Pep can keep his guys fresh and Sergio Aguero and Kevin De Bruyne can return from injury, they should have enough to advance to the next round. But this could very easily be upset if Gladbach plays with the same intensity they brought to the group stage and recent wins over Bayern and Dortmund last month. As long as Pep does not over-tinker with the team. I’d bet on City pulling it off, but Gladbach is one of the better-upset candidates remaining in the competition.
Man City (7-3 Agg)
FC PORTO - JUVENTUS
Juventus have been underwhelming for much of the season under new manager Andrea Pirlo. They are only in 4th place in league play and waited until the final match of group play against Barcelona to put on their best performance. The addition of Cristiano Ronaldo was supposed to elevate the club, but in year 3 it’s possible that they are stagnating despite CR7 still being among the best in the world.
Porto isn’t strong enough to trouble the Bianconeri, despite nice seasons for Mehdi Taremi and Sergio Oliveira. Right-back Juan Cuadrado is expected to miss the first leg of the tie, but it isn’t a debilitating loss like PSG losing Neymar or Real Madrid losing Sergio Ramos. Juventus still have the talent advantage, will have no trouble advancing to the quarterfinals.
Juventus (5-1 Agg)
ATALANTA - REAL MADRID
This draw became a little less interesting with the news that Alejandro ‘Papu’ Gomez forced a move to Sevilla in the January transfer window. With Gomez out, it’s hard to see Atalanta putting up much of a fight against an inconsistent but still very dangerous Real Madrid side. Fans of the club can point to their 3-0 defeat of Serie A leaders AC Milan and a 3-1 triumph over Napoli in the Coppa Italia as reasons for optimism, as well as Real Madrid’s struggles without Sergio Ramos in the Champions League. Real Madrid appears to have figured something out in recent weeks, with the only blemishes on their record being a 2-1 loss to Levante and a defeat to Alcoyano in the Copa Del Rey. Karim Benzema and company have been playing well enough recently that you can’t help but think they will move onto the next round with ease. Bet against Madrid at your own risk. I won’t.
Real Madrid (7-2 Agg)
LAZIO - BAYERN MUNICH
Credit Lazio for making it to the round of 16 behind Ciro Immobile, but they are simply overmatched against Hansi Flick’s Bayern Munich. I would not read into the Bavarians’ struggles earlier in the week with Arminia Biefeld; there is some fatigue with the buildup of matches, including a Club World Cup. But there is more than enough strength in the team to move onto the next round. I don’t think it will be as bad as the 8-2 pasting Munich gave to Barcelona over the summer, but this won’t end well for Simone Inzaghi’s side, who will be licking their wounds after a 3-1 defeat to Inter Milan over the weekend. Robert Lewandoski is still the best striker in the world and the talent around him just makes Bayern’s eventual triumph in the tournament practically inevitable.
Bayern Munich (7-3 Agg)