What To Do With John Collins
For a season and a half now, John Collins has seemingly been in trade rumors. Well, those rumors seem to be true as it’s been reported that ATL is listening to offers for the 4th-year big man. After an interesting offseason, Atlanta was expected to be better than “just in the playoff hunt”. They added depth to a young, improving roster, normally a recipe for sustainable success. Instead, the team is currently below .500 with no immediate answers. Thus, we are now hearing rumblings of them looking to shake things up.
Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Trade John Collins
Collins is the Hawks’ 2nd best player behind PG Trae Young. His numbers have taken a slight dip from last year to this year, but he’s still an explosive, floor-stretching PF. He’s an exceptionally good, versatile scorer who plays underrated defense. He’s not a defensive stopper, but he’s far from the problem on that end of the court for Atlanta. Nearly all the advanced metrics weigh in favor of John Collins’ importance to the team, and it’s been that way ever since his rookie year.
The most glaring issue with trading Collins is trying to figure out what the Hawks would be targeting in return. The team is already deep in the backcourt and on the wing. Would they be flipping Collins for another PF? If so, what PF could they get that is an upgrade over Collins? Could they simply look to flip Collins for draft capital? If so, wouldn’t that mean they had a wasted offseason making these big signings? Trading Collins for anything other than an upgrade would set the franchise back a few more seasons.
Though several teams could use a player of Collins’ caliber, what team really has the assets to land him? He’s still on his rookie deal, so it’ll be hard to land a big name unless it’s a package deal. There are a few contending teams that could use him, but those contenders don’t really have much to offer Atlanta back. And the young, lottery-bound teams that could use him wouldn’t be wise to give up draft picks in this upcoming draft for a player that you have to agree to a contract extension with.
How the Hawks Should Trade John Collins
Even if it wouldn’t be wise to trade Collins, the Hawks look like they’ll do so regardless. If so, it should only be for a star player, but what big-name players are available?
Bradley Beal
Beal is the best player who seems readily available, though neither he nor the Wizards have expressed interest in trading him. Beal would be a phenomenal addition to the Hawks, an immediate upgrade as Young’s backcourt mate. However, why would the Wizards be interested in Collins and other pieces? Collins wouldn’t fit the Wizards’ roster, as they just invested in Davis Bertans at the PF position and drafted Rui Hachimura just last season to play PF. Even recently drafted SF Deni Avdija looks like he can play the 4 spot in spurts. That would mean Washington would be playing Collins a lot at the C position, where he’s struggled immensely as a Hawk. Landing Beal may be off the table, unless there’s a 3rd or even two more teams involved, with Collins landing elsewhere.
Zach LaVine
LaVine is yet another SG that seems available. Like Beal, he would step in as an immediate upgrade as Young’s backcourt mate, but the team would likely suffer defensively with the pairing. Beal has been one of the league’s worst defenders for two seasons now, but at least we know he can play defense at an above-average rate, as witnessed from his earlier years with John Wall. LaVine, on the other hand, has yet to look competent on defense as he seems to not care much about that end of the court. Even if the Hawks believed the backcourt would work out, what would make Chicago want to add Collins to their roster? They just spent back-to-back #7 picks on the frontcourt in 2017 and 2018 with Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter. Though Collins is better than both players, would he necessarily be an upgrade? He’s an upgrade over Markkanen due to rebounding and health but what would they now do with Markkanen? Landing LaVine would also likely have to involve a 3rd team, with either Collins going elsewhere or Markkanen also being shipped out of Chicago.
Victor Oladipo
Oladipo may be the best fit next to Young out of him, Beal, and LaVine. Houston is also a team that may be able to use Collins plus the other players that would be involved to cover salary differences. A frontcourt of Collins and Christian Wood may actually give the Rockets a very bright future. The deal would likely have to include either Bogdan Bogdanovic or Tony Snell + Cam Reddish. The biggest concern for the Hawks would be if Oladipo re-signs or not. If they made the deal and Oladipo walked in the offseason, they’d lose young assets for a short-term rental. If Oladipo did re-sign, they’d have to bank on his health not becoming an issue. Oladipo may be the best fit, but the questions surrounding him may not be worth losing Collins.
Karl-Anthony Towns
KAT is yet another big-name that may float around the rumor mill this season. Though he is the best player of the guys I’ve named so far, his fit on Atlanta is probably the most questionable. The Hawks would likely have to trade Collins, Clint Capela, and another player to land KAT, in addition to picks as well. But would that really improve the team? Capela has been a bright spot on the team as a rebounder, rim-runner, and rim protector who knows his role and excels at it. KAT would upgrade the offense, but defense built around him and Trae Young would be bound to be a bottom-5 defense. If we thought KAT and D’Angelo Russell was a poor defensive core, KAT and Young would be even worse. For Minnesota, it would be a beneficial reset for them as things haven’t turned around, despite the franchise’s efforts to appease the star big man. Collins and Capela may offer some much-needed defensive upgrades on a team full of question marks. This deal would be bad for ATL and good for Minnesota.
DeMar DeRozan
I’ll keep this one short as it would benefit the Spurs a lot more than it would benefit the Hawks. DeRozan has proven that he’s a winning-quality player, leading the young Spurs to playoff contention in the West, but how much would he move the needle for Atlanta? Atlanta would gain another playmaker but lose out on floor-spacing and size. Meanwhile, San Antonio would find a PF to help build for the future, as well as a few more rotational pieces needed to account for salary differences.
John Collins-Atlanta Hawks Need to Figure it Out
All in all, trading Collins will not be easy. Even if it results in an upgrade, how high would it raise Atlanta’s ceiling? Could they land a big enough star that makes them title contenders? Should be content in simply becoming good enough to be slightly above .500? Or should they look for more future assets while giving up a sure-fire future asset with Collins? Regardless, these trade rumors surrounding Collins make little sense to me. If anything, the Hawks need to figure out why the team isn’t better with all this talent on the roster. The individual stats of their main role players look like success on paper, but somehow the team is in the middle of the pack both offensively and defensively. Is it time for yet another coaching change? Was Lloyd Pierce the wrong hire? If so, what upgrades are available for the Head Coaching position?