Breaking Down the 2021 MVP Race
This year’s NBA MVP Race has been more open than any MVP race in recent memory, maybe ever. The frontrunner changed every few months, from Joel Embiid to James Harden to Nikola Jokic.
There are normally two or three guys who get serious consideration, then a few guys who get some votes but aren’t true MVP contenders. This year is no different, though a few players have serious cases rather than just one or two. With a few guys left in the season, I’m here to break it down.
*Stats as of May 7th, 2021*
Front Runner Candidate
Nikola Jokic: Jokic is more than likely going to win MVP this year. While he’s been phenomenal this entire season, he truly stood out as the front runner because of injuries to his main competitors. That shouldn’t take away from Jokic’s 2020-2021 campaign, however. He’s averaging career highs in points, rebounds, and assists while being extremely efficient. He also leads the league in both PER and win shares.
The Nuggets are currently 4th in the West (5th best record in the league), just half a game behind the LA Clippers. They’re four games behind 1st and six games ahead of 5th in the West. To add to Jokic’s MVP case, Denver’s 2nd best player Jamal Murray went down early in April and the Nuggets have gone 10-2 since then.
Jokic is putting up some historically great numbers offensively and has been a much-improved player defensively, at least with his improved effort. He leads Denver in scoring, rebounding, assists, and steals while missing a total of 0 games. Jokic is the clear front runner for MVP with six games left on Denver’s slate.
Team Success Candidates
Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Donovan Mitchell: Don’t get me wrong, all three of these players have been great for their teams this season, but they’ll likely get MVP votes, if any, mainly because of their team’s success during the regular season. The Jazz and Suns will likely finish with the two best records in the league, and a lot of the credit should go to these guards.
Paul will end up higher on most MVP ranking lists than Booker because of the jump Phoenix has made with his addition, but he’s only averaging about 16 points, 5 boards, and 9 assists, along with 1.5 steals. Solid numbers but his MVP votes will have more to do with the storyline than his actual output.
This is far from Paul’s best season, but it’s the best we’ve seen the Suns since the Nash-D’Antoni era. Booker may get some votes because of his overall scoring and ability to close out games for a team right towards the standings (would be on pace for a 60-win season if it were 82 games). However, he doesn’t hold the storyline that Paul does for MVP.
Mitchell’s case for MVP could be lumped up with the next group of guys I’ll talk about but he’ll rest in this trio for now. He’s had a phenomenal season, posting career highs in PPG and APG while slightly improving his efficiency.
However, he has now missed 13 games and the Jazz are viewed as a solid cast of players who are well-coached and are built to dominate the regular season. Serious MVP consideration for Mitchell in the future is contingent on the Jazz becoming a true contender in the playoffs.
Injury Setback Candidates
The official games played threshold for statistical qualifications is 58 of 82 games or about 70% of the games in a season. However, there is an exception, and that’s if a player’s average would still lead the league if his existing total in that stat was divided by 58 games. The best example to look at would be Gerald Wallace leading the league in steals in ‘05-’06, despite only playing 55 games. Straight from NBA.com,
“Gerald Wallace collected 138 steals in 55 games (2.51 SPG) during the 2005-06 season. Wallace would have still led the league in steals because his average with 58 games (2.38 SPG) would have been greater than the 2.28 SPG of Brevin Knight, the leader among players who met the 58-game qualifier.”
For this 72-game season, that magic number would be 51 games. Now, the same “games played” qualifier may not be the exact qualifier for individual awards but missing games definitely hurts a player’s case to win an award.
Joel Embiid: Embiid was ahead of Jokic for a large portion of this season, mainly because of his ability to be a high-impact player on both ends of the court. However, he’s missed 19 of Philly’s 66 games thus far. He would have to play at least four more games to keep his name from disappearing from MVP ballots.
He hasn’t been as dominant recently as he was before the injuries but he’s still 2nd in the league in PER and top 10 in win shares despite missing all that time. It would take a miraculous performance in these final games of the season, and horrible outings from Jokic, for Embiid to reclaim the status as the front runner for MVP.
James Harden: Harden was a dark horse MVP candidate for most of the season, but like Embiid, injuries held him out of the lineup for far too long. Harden has only played 42 games this season (34 with Brooklyn) and still hasn’t been cleared to return yet.
His impact on the Nets has been evident as the team hasn’t dominated with him out of the lineup, even in games with both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. If Harden never got injured, we’d have yet another season with Harden in a neck-and-neck race for MVP. The MVP race between him and Jokic would have been real, but unfortunately, injuries happen.
LeBron James: LeBron was yet another player in the mix for MVP before the injury bug hit. It seemed like “LeBron for MVP” narratives were steadily ramping up before he went out. But now he’s missed over 20 games and his LA Lakers have fallen far from top 3 in the West. Even if LeBron were to return now and play all of LA’s remaining games, and put up historic numbers while doing so, it would be too late for him to climb significantly up the MVP ladder.
No Storyline Candidates
Kawhi Leonard: Like Mitchell, Kawhi could end up in two of these categories. He’s had a great season so far, putting up 25 PPG, 7 RPG, and 5 APG, with near 50/40/90 splits. However, in Kawhi-like fashion, he’s missed 18 of the Clippers’ 67 games. Even if he were healthy for more games, there really isn’t much storyline backing Kawhi for MVP, even though he doesn’t have that trophy under his belt yet.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Giannis’ numbers are still ridiculous. He’s putting up similar numbers to his back-to-back MVP numbers but it just isn’t the same this year. Milwaukee hasn’t been as dominant as previous seasons, as they’ve been doing more experimenting in playstyles this year. Also, voter fatigue has crept into play for Giannis as the public wants to see him elevate in the playoffs and no longer just dominate in the regular season.
Great Numbers/Not Enough Wins Candidates
The remainder of the MVP voting list will likely consist of players putting up great numbers on teams that aren’t as good as the true contenders in either conference. Guys who are carrying the heavy loads of their teams, keeping their teams from being bottom feeders.
Stephen Curry
Luka Doncic
Damian Lillard
Julius Randle