2021 What You Expect NBA Draft Big Board: Top 101 Prospects

The 2020-21 NCAA basketball season has ended, which means it’s time to release the first edition of the What You Expect NBA Draft Big Board. This is an unusual draft class for a number of reasons. For instance, the G-League Ignite pipeline became available for the first time as highly-touted teenagers matched up against grown men, making evaluations even more difficult.

This uncertainty is compounded by the pandemic and its various effects on typical procedures and game-planning. Even more importantly, the top of this year’s draft is perhaps the strongest in a decade, and there’s much less consensus than usual regarding the ranking of these prospects.

All in all, the product of this uncertainty is variability. Given the unknown aggregate extent of the pandemic on the season, I’ve decided to emphasize the statistical aspect of player profiles more than usual. I’d estimate that my weighting is 60% stats, 30% eye test, and 10% intangibles (archetype, likely landing stop, positional value, etc.). As a result, my rankings are going to look much different than the consensus. I have some popular prospects arguably “outrageously” low, while I’ve included an abundance of relatively-unknown prospects much higher than typically seen. For instance, 3 of my top 35 guys don’t even show up on ESPN’s Top 100 Big Board. At the end of the day, draft analysis is an imperfect science, and the consensus is always laughably wrong in retrospect, so I’ve tried my best to rank these guys without altering for hype or other people’s rankings. 

It’s important to describe my draft philosophy for these rankings. There’s been a number of analyses in recent years that indicate that, after the top 20 picks, the entire draft is a massive crapshoot. Tiering prospects after this range is likely not productive, and the inaccuracy of the consensus big boards really starts to become apparent from this point forward. As a result, I’ve used the following system, along with approximate classifications:

Tier 1-3: the top 20 players, traditionally ranked

Tier 4-6: split into two subsections of high ceiling and high floor

• Floor: older prospects with a higher floor and lower ceiling
• Upside: younger prospects with a lower floor and higher ceiling

Tier 7: second round candidates with relatively high upside

Tier 8: generally underrated players with a niche skill

After the top 20, the short-term goals of the teams that are picking is quite variable, as this is when the contenders start picking. As a result, there’s a stark change in the types of players targeted, as contenders would prefer high floor, win-now prospects, while teams on the rise may target a younger player with untapped potential. I believe that ranking players by considering this divergence is much more informative by considering this dichotomy of objective.

Take the 2020 draft, for instance. Most draftniks agreed that in 10 years, Xavier Tillman and Desmond Bane would likely be considered one of the top 20 players in the class. However, they weren’t even considered remotely close to lottery guys by NBA teams, as their upside didn’t warrant that kind of draft capital. My tier subdivision methodology accounts for this discrepancy.

By default, I have the high floor subsection ranked ahead of the high upside subsection in each of the subdivided tiers. This seems to be the most net beneficial method, but it’s still a point of contention nonetheless, as certain teams may simply hunt upside in the second round, regardless if the odds of an older role player hitting is much higher. Thus, these subdivisions are theoretically swappable. As a result, don’t take the prospect rankings within tiers 4-6 too seriously.

Note that the definition of high upside and high floor may vary from round to round. For instance, I included Max Abmas in the “high floor” subsection, while Matthew Hurt is included in the “high upside” subsection. Both of these players will serve in a similar role, so this may seem confusing. This is why context is critical.

As a fringe first round pick, Abmas is in a range that includes many high variance freshman, and his floor and age far exceeds these prospects. However, Hurt is projected as a mid-second rounder, where the median percentile is far more stable given the abundance of older prospects. As a result, he’s younger and has a bit more upside in comparison to these prospects, and thus he is listed within the “high upside” subsection. Bottom line: these upside/floor classifications are based on the players projected to be drafted around a given player. Also, I tried to make each subsection with a 1:1 ratio, so there were some clear reaches.

Finally, for the sake of comparison, I included the ESPN Big Board ranking (as of April 16th) of each prospect in parenthesis. Later on, I’ll write a couple articles going deeper into the players that I have much higher or much lower than consensus.

TIER 1:

1. Cade Cunningham (1)

2. Evan Mobley (2)

3. Jalen Green (4)

4. Jalen Suggs (3)

TIER 2:

5. Franz Wagner (9)

6. Jaden Springer (28)

7. Moses Moody (21)

8. Jonathan Kuminga (5)

9. Scottie Barnes (10)

10. Keon Johnson (6)

TIER 3:

11. Usman Garuba (20)

12. Sharife Cooper (18)

13. Josh Giddey (13)

14. Cam Thomas (15)

15. Jalen Johnson (7)

16. Chris Duarte (25)

17. Alperen Sengun (14)

18. Jared Butler (23)

19. Isaiah Jackson (11)

20. Kai Jones (16)

TIER 4 FLOOR:

21. Corey Kispert (12)

22. Davion Mitchell (8)

23. Tre Mann (17)

24. Trey Murphy III (42)

25. Max Abmas (30)

26. Miles McBride (35)

27. Ayo Dosunmu (22)

28. Nah’Shon Hyland (68)

29. Julian Champagnie (unranked)

TIER 4 UPSIDE:

30. Ziaire Williams (24)

31. James Bouknight (19)

32. Roko Prkacin (38)

33. Vrenz Bleijenbergh (unranked)

34. JT Thor (unranked)

35. Brandon Boston (34)

36. Rokas Jokobaitis (41)

37. Bennedict Mathurin (59)

38. Greg Brown Jr. (29)

TIER 5 FLOOR:

39. Charles Bassey (26)

40. Neemias Queta (76)

41. Isaiah Livers (47)

42. Aamir Simms (unranked)

43. Quentin Grimes (64)

44. Sam Hauser (74)

TIER 5 UPSIDE:

45. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (48)

46. Josh Christopher (37)

47. Matthew Hurt (48)

48. Johnny Juzang (63)

49. Daishen Nix (58)

50. Justin Champagnie (65)

TIER 6 FLOOR:

51. Luka Garza (53)

52. Raiquan Gray (43)

53. Kessler Edwards (49)

54. Joel Ayayi (62)

55. JaQuori McLaughlin (unranked)

TIER 6 UPSIDE:

56. Marcus Bagley (27)

57. Day’Ron Sharpe (36)

58. Ibou Dianko Badji (73)

59. David Duke (69)

60. Scotty Pippen Jr. (unranked)

TIER 7: 

61. Keyontae Johnson (39)

62. DJ Steward (61)

63. Aaron Henry (31)

64. Herbert Jones (56)

65. Moses Wright (91)

66. Terrence Shannon Jr (33)

67. Austin Reaves (40)

68. Alan Griffin (unranked)

69. Josiah Jordan-James (unranked)

70. Matt Mitchell (72)

71. Sandro Mamukelashvili (62)

72. Jordan Schakel (unranked)

73. Joe Wiescamp (82)

74. Keve Aluma (unranked)

75. Santi Aldama (57)

76. Filip Petrusev (32) 

77. Ariel Hukporti (42)

78. Mojave King (unranked)

79. Terrence Clarke (71)

80. Isaiah Todd (50)

TIER 8:

81. Jay Huff (75)

82. Alex Barcello (unranked)

83. McKinley Wright (98)

84. Jose Alvarado (97)

85. Scottie Lewis (92)

86. Jason Preston (88)

87. Oscar Da Silva (unranked)

88. Derrick Alston Jr. (99)

89. Aaron Wiggins (86)

90. MaCio Teague (unranked)

91. Drew Timme (79)

92. Matthew Mayer (53)

93. Trendon Watford (55)

94. Terry Taylor (unranked)

95. DJ Stewart Jr. (unranked)

96. EJ Liddell (unranked)

97. Danny Pippen (unranked)

98. Jalen Wilson (unranked)

99. Taevion Kinsey (unranked)

100. Dru Smith (unranked)

101. Eugene Omoruyi (unranked)

COMMENTARY

My outlook on this draft class has continually shifted over the past few months. At first, I believed that this could be one of the greatest draft classes ever, with potentially 10 players worthy of going first overall. A few weeks later, I did a full 360, as many of these elite prospects were immensely disappointing, and there weren’t many impressive upperclassmen or players in general that projected to be high-level role players at the next level. 

Now, I’m somewhat between those two. I think that from a pure numbers standpoint, this year has far more NBA-caliber players that are in the draft conversation from last year. Most of the top 80 guys were in my top 60 or even top 30 at some point during the season, and it was especially hard to make cuts in the 50-70 range. Similarly, the top of the draft class looks settled, but there’s a considerable number of underclassmen with extremely high upsides and extremely low floors. The opinion on these players vary, as expected, so I relied on their projected median outcome for ranking purposes. As a result, there’s players like Ariel Hukporti or Kai Jones who are much lower on my board than consensus. That’s not to say I don’t believe in their upside, but it’s just that I’m not as confident in their long-term projection if their swing skills don’t land.

Another thing you may notice is that I am much higher on prospects with legitimate shooting ability. Many of these players may be considered one-dimensional, but elite shooting with passable defense is a formula for a long career. Furthermore, with the direction that the league is going in, I think that the norms of shooting are going to vastly shift. Shooting 40% from three is going to become much more common, and prospects who can meet these benchmarks are thus going to have much more job security.

Finally, here’s an overview of my favorite prospects from each tier.

Tier 1: I didn’t want to make a tier with only 2 players, but I definitely think Cade and Mobley are at a different level than Green and Suggs. Both of them would be first overall picks in nearly any other draft, and Mobley in particular has an intriguing ceiling that could be unlocked by the right team.

Tier 2: Clearly, I am very high on Franz, Springer, and Moses Moody. These are probably my favorite prospects in the draft, and their ceilings are pretty underrated. The ability to create at the next level, for themselves and for their teammates, is probably the common swing skill. Based on Kuminga’s film, I’m a bit wary of the floor, but he’s obviously a top 5 type of player.

Tier 3: I’m very high on Sharife, Duarte, and Butler. To a lesser extent, Roko Prkacin has heliocentrism potential if the shot develops. Also, Usman Garuba is so fun to watch on defense, and he’s currently on a bit of a shooting streak at the moment, so his upside is also tantalizing.

Tier 4: If you’ve been following me, you know I’m very high on Julian Champagnie. Max Abmas is an even more productive shooter, and he definitely gives off some Trae Young and Immanuel Quickley vibes. Vrenz Bleijenbergh is so fun to watch, and even though the comparison is getting a bit repetitive, he reminds me of Aleksej Pokusevski. Greg Brown and Ziaire Williams have undeniably high upsides, but they would have to be major outliers in comparison to other freshmen to become high-level NBA players.
Tier 5: This is my favorite tier, especially within the “high floor” subsection. They each have flaws, but each player possesses a “niche” ability or skill set, which bodes well for long-term success. I’m really surprised that Aamir Simms isn’t getting much NBA love; he’s a pass-dribble-shoot wing with size and real shooting ability. Reminds me of current undrafted Pelicans rookie Naji Marshall.

Tier 6: You could select any 20 players in Tier 7 to replace those in Tier 6 and I wouldn’t have blame you. This was the hardest tier to rank, especially since it’s the fringe of undrafted/drafted players. I could have had Scotty Pippen Jr higher, and I’m surprised at the lack of hype he’s generating, especially with his name. The athleticism is there, and there aren’t many players with high-level passing, perimeter defense, and shooting. Ibaji is another player with little hype, and while he’s very raw, his physical profile is insane. His frame alone should get him some draft looks, and his upside is tremendous. The floor is also extremely low, and he likely won’t have draft capital on his side, so even though the talent is clearly there, it’s hard to rank him inside the top 50.

Tier 7: Mojave King is so underrated, and he can do seemingly everything well. He’s definitely one of my favorite international prospects. I had Alan Griffin as a top 60 guy for most of the year, and while he ended the season with some horrible performances, I still think his two-way game makes him a draftable prospect with upside. I haven’t seen a word about him, so while he did declare for the draft, I’d expect him to return.

Tier 8: Jose Alvarado has immense upside, even at his height and age. He passes all the statistical benchmarks for successful four-year guards in the NBA (read more about these benchmarks here), yet he is inevitably going to be overlooked for his height. He falls under the Payton Pritchard/Fred VanVleet archetype, and he’s just so fun to watch. I’m really high on Danny Pippen as well, who is somehow generating no draft hype. He has guard skills and shooting ability as a 6’9 wing, which is going to be valuable regardless of setting. Same applies to Oscar Da Silva and DJ Stewart Jr, both of whom could be seen as the steal of this draft. Also, Eugene Omuruyi’s statistical profile is eerily similar to Jimmy Butler.