2021 NBA Draft Sleepers: St. John's Julian Champagnie is Hiding in Plain Sight

As I’ve done since last year, I’m looking for NBA prospects that possess unique skill sets and a lack of hype. Last month, I went over UCSB point guard JaQuori McLaughlin, whose impressive Big West Tournament and March Madness showings have massively boosted his draft stock.

I’m hoping a similar thing occurs to St. John’s forward Julian Champagnie. He has a very tantalizing combination of shooting, defense, and youth that somehow seems to fly under the radar, as I’ve only seen Champagnie in a handful of mocks, and he hasn’t been covered much in general. Here’s why he needs more hype.

OFFENSE

There’s no doubt that Julian Champagnie is a lethal offensive threat. He led the Big East in scoring, averaging 19.8 points per game on 56.5 TS%. He was the undisputed alpha on St. John’s, as his 25.9 usage percentage paced the team, but he also displayed remarkable efficiency, posting a 4.5 PORPAGATU! (usage-adjusted efficiency). For context, that mark would place him at 19th among high-major players with a usage above 25%. 

This is certainly an impressive feat, but consider Champagnie’s unique role as a wing. In fact, of the 19 players ahead of him, only one is considered a prototypical wing (EJ Liddell). Champagnie’s ability to thrive as a sharpshooting forward at such a high usage bodes well for his NBA future.

There’s no question, however, that Champagnie’s calling card is his insane shooting ability. Quite simply, Champagnie is one of the best shooting prospects in the country. To begin, he stands at 6’8, making him a mismatch on the perimeter. Furthermore, his eye-popping shooting splits are even more intriguing with context.

Champagnie went 60 for 159 from three, good for a 37.7 three point percentage. He took a remarkable 10.5 threes per 100 possessions, and threes made up 41.3% of Champagnie’s total shots. However, one of the biggest issues with scouting shooters is that collegiate three point percentage is quite variable. Free throw percentage is much more indicative of future three point shooting potential in the NBA, and let’s just say that the underlying numbers greatly favor Champagnie. He shot a blistering 88% from the charity stripe, which by far led the Big East Conference. Champagnie led the nation in free throw percentage among players with at least 100 free throws made, demonstrating that this was no fluke. 

In fact, this demonstrates another one of Champagnie’s numerous versatile aspects: he can get to the rim at a high rate for a sharpshooting wing. 

Another major issue with many shooting prospects is that they are often labeled as one-dimensional, and they rarely get to the line. However, Champagnie has shown a propensity to get to the line at a high rate (30.0 FTR, highest on St. John’s), largely propelled by his ability to get to the rim at a high frequency. He had 12 dunks and went 62 for 104, or 60%, at the rim. He can finish through contact effectively, and can thus draw fouls in a way that many shooting prospects cannot. He’s an intelligent finisher, which makes it more likely that this skill will translate to the next level.

As you’ll see over the next couple clips, Champagnie possesses a solid handle, another attribute that is unique among his archetype of prospects. He has great pace and control over his body, giving him the ability to create space and finish at the rim. This combination of shooting gravity and body control should make him lethal in attacking closeouts, allowing him to drive and get easy baskets at the rim.

You don’t see many high level shooting prospects on the other side of an alley-oop, either. Champagnie isn’t the most athletic finisher, but there’s clearly potential for him at the next level in terms of cutting and putbacks at the rim. His ability to catch lobs theoretically adds another dimension to his off-ball movement, allowing him to draw defenders and create even more space for his teammates.

One way I quantify the well-roundedness of a shooter is through the “60-60-60” club, which entails 60 close 2’s, 60 free throws, and 60 three-pointers. Champagnie was one of only 11 players to meet this criterion, joining first round locks such as Cade Cunningham, Corey Kispert, Chris Duarte, and Jared Butler. Such a skill set ensures that Champagnie will not be entirely one-dimensional at the next level.

We’ve established the well-roundedness of Champagnie’s game, so let’s dive deeper into what matters most: his shooting ability. Much like other elite shooters, Champagnie thrives off the catch-and-shoot three. However, there’s two specific aspects of his shooting that make him particularly unique. First off, with his quick release, compact form, and 6’8 frame, Champagnie barely needs any space to operate on the perimeter. The more terrifying aspect, however, is that Champagnie takes full advantage of this, as he is completely unafraid of taking heavily contested catch-and-shoot threes. Rather than having a diet of wide open threes to pad his average, Champagnie takes difficult threes each game, indicating that he’s a better shooter than his already fantastic 37.7% three point accuracy indicates.

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Here, two defenders leap at Champagnie, but he is completely unfazed. He sees an opening on the perimeter, makes the move, receives the pass, and puts up a high-arching three, all of which occurs in just about 5 seconds. With his quick and high release, Champagnie’s defender can’t do much to stop the ball, and the result is a beautiful three that cements St. Johns lead against one of the Big East’s better defensive units. Eerily reminiscent of Duncan Robinson.

This clip is even more impressive. Champagnie is going up against Marquette's Justin Lewis, who is 6’7 and 245 pounds. Champagnie squares his shoulders, then quickly erupts for a three-pointer despite the extremely limited space. Even more remarkable is the context, as St. John’s was down by three with only three minutes remaining. For the vast majority of college basketball players, this is a horrible shot, but for Champagnie, this tight go-ahead three is simply routine. 

He’s adept at tight catch-and-shoot threes, but Champagnie isn’t a one-trick pony. One of the biggest developments that he’s made this year is improved space creation. Here, he makes his patented left side corner three through the jab step, freezing his defender and creating a clean look.

Champagnie’s contested catch-and-shoot prowess is certainly impressive, but I’d argue his off-the-dribble perimeter shot-making is the most impressive facet of his game. His above-average handle provides another path to creating space, and the step-back is just icing on the cake. The number of elite shooters with the ability to make a play like this is quite low.

Last year, when profiling now-Memphis Grizzlies forward Sean McDermott, I discussed the rise of one-dribble threes, which are becoming increasingly common as NBA defenders try to adjust to catch-and-shoot specialists. The one-dribble three is an advanced move, and it’s something that a number of elite NBA shooters, such as Duncan Robinson and Joe Harris, have worked on in recent years to add it to their bag. Clearly, Champagnie is ahead of the curve, as he surprises his admittedly-unagile defender with the one dribble step back, followed by his trademark high release and the easy bucket. 

Again, Champagnie’s ability to maneuver in tight spaces using his handle is something that not a lot of shooting prospects can do, and it bodes really well for his NBA future. He knocks down contested threes at a high clip without hesitation, which, combined with his high free throw percentage, makes me confident that he will be an effective sharpshooter in the NBA.

DEFENSE

Champagnie projects as a true 3&D wing at the next level. Much like his offensive game, Champagnie’s defense is very well rounded, with a 3.2% block percentage and a 2.4% steal percentage. This is impressive given his length and frame at 6’8, and while I don’t think he’s going to be a point-of-attack wing stopper at the next level, he should certainly be a high level team defender. 

Champagnie has a D-PORPAG of 3.6 and an adjusted defensive rating of 95.0, both of which are well above average. Additionally, he profiles as a strong defensive rebounder, as his 19.8 defensive rebounding percentage ranked 9th in the Big East conference. With an ability to protect the rim, guard the perimeter, and crash the defensive glass, Champagnie’s multidimensional defensive profile is intriguing, and it ensures that he won’t be hunted on switches by opposing offenses like most elite shooters are.

This is a particularly timely block by Champagnie, who displays his defensive instincts and vertical pop. He’s not a true rim protector of course, but he projects to be a multi-positional defender.

He misses the shot, but Champagnie shows remarkable poise and hustle here. He has quick hands, catching number 11 by surprise. Finding the open man is a nice ribbon on top, and while Champagnie’s 7.9% assist percentage indicates a lack of playmaking chops, it’s flashes like this that make me hopeful that he could play something like a tertiary creation role in the NBA rather than a strictly off-ball shooting role.

OVERALL

Julian Champagnie is young, but I don’t think people realize just how young he is. He’s a sophomore, but he’s only 19.8 years old. For context, he’s younger than FRESHMEN such as Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, and Sharife Cooper. Champagnie has a lot of untapped upside, and considering his relatively young age, it’s crazy how he isn’t a surefire first rounder. 

Combine Champagnie’s undeniable upside, particularly in becoming a higher level creator, and we could be looking at a game-changing wing. He has an uncanny ability to create space with his footwork and solid handle, he can get to the rim as a cutter or in transition, and he’s unafraid of knocking down tough contested threes.

The shooting ability is legit, as demonstrated by his conference leading free-throw percentage, and tapping into that creation ability would make him borderline unstoppable. Obviously, that’s more of his 90th percentile outcome, but it’s worth considering. Throw in the defensive versatility, and Champagnie is the epitome of the prototypical wing.

Of course, there are some weaknesses. He doesn’t have great burst or an explosive first step, so it may be harder for him to maintain his aggressiveness and get downhill effectively at the next level. Additionally, there wasn’t a whole lot of movement shooting or offball movement from Champagnie, which is something that NBA teams highly value. 

Still, these aren’t huge negatives. We have to consider that he is, after all, the same age as most freshmen, and a lot of these issues can be fixed by NBA teams. Getting downhill against NBA defenders is undeniably going to be tough, but it’s not as big of a deal given his handle, as well as a relative lack of necessity.

As long as he can attack closeouts and cut to the rim for the occasional lob, he’ll provide much more versatility in relation to the offense than a typical NBA sharpshooter. Same goes with the lack of movement shooting; it’s typically a skill that’s relatively difficult to pick up, but it’s fairly attainable since he’s so good off-the-dribble and in contested situations. He’s a solid athlete, and on a team that doesn’t ask him to shoulder a 25% usage rate, Champagnie should thrive in off-ball relocation plays as well.

Finally, let’s consider Champagnie’s potential outcomes. His 20-30th percentile outcome is probably something like Kenrich Williams or Torrey Craig, someone who can play defense and shoot well for stretches, but won’t be a game-changing player.

I’d say his 60th percentile outcome is Jae Crowder, a more integral 3&D guy who can be a very valuable player on a contending team. His 90th percentile outcome is probably like Duncan Robinson without the defensive concerns, or maybe even someone in the mold of Klay Thompson. 

That’s probably too zealous of a comparison, but it just highlights how fascinating Champagnie is as a prospect. His size, untapped upside, and two-way versatility make him the ideal wing in the modern NBA, yet I’ve seen mock drafts where he isn’t even drafted in the second round. Personally, I don’t see how Champagnie isn’t at least in the first round conversation. He has a very high floor, and he should be able to contribute right away. I’m still working on my NBA big board, but it’s hard to see him drop outside the top 35 or so prospects.

Overall, not only does Champagnie need to be more in the draft conversation, he needs to be discussed as a potential first round pick. There’s not many nineteen-year-olds that have a shooting arsenal as diverse as Champagnie while simultaneously possessing the ability to defend multiple positions. The combination of a high floor and an unknown ceiling makes it highly likely that he will outperform his draft position. In a draft full of unknowns and risks, Champagnie is hiding in plain sight as an undervalued player who can immediately make winning plays for any team.

NBA teams need to wake up and put Julian Champagnie on their draft boards.