Most Regrettable Offseason Moves in the NBA (Thus Far)
We’re just about a quarter of the way through the 2020-2021 NBA season. Every team has now played 17+ games, besides the Washington Wizards and Memphis Grizzlies. Though teams still need time to gel, it’s a good time to do some early reflecting on this past offseason’s moves. We’ll go over the worst, most regrettable offseason moves; some expected, some shocking.
Boston Celtics not going for the Turner/Hayward swap
The Celtics were reportedly offered Myles Turner and a 1st by the Indiana Pacers in return for Gordon Hayward in a sign-and-trade move. Celtics’ GM Danny Ainge reportedly turned down the offer, yet they ended up losing Hayward outright in Free Agency. Let’s be clear, the Celtics are still one of the best teams in the East this year. The combination of Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson has been solid for them as they rank in the middle of the pack in defensive rating and rebounding while being top 10 in blocks. However, I can’t help but wonder how good/scary this team would’ve been with Turner instead of Thompson. Yes, the rebounding would have suffered with Turner, who isn’t a great rebounder like Thompson. But the continued floor spacing on offense with Turner staring and Theis as the backup, in addition to the consistent rim protection, would have made life easier for the wings and guards to perform. The Celtics have surprisingly used Thomson and Theis as their starting frontcourt, which would mean they’d turn to Turner and Theis as the starters (both have exclusively played C this year). Though iffy, the pair would still fit better than Thompson and Theis have thus far.
Dallas Mavericks picking Josh Richardson’s 3&D upside over Seth Curry’s elite shooting
It made sense when the Mavs traded away Curry for Richardson this offseason. They had one of the best offenses in league history and looked capable of sacrificing a little bit of offensive firepower for a better two-way wing. Through 10 appearances in Dallas, Richardson is shooting a horrid 29.6% from three on 5.4 attempts per game while Curry is shooting 51.7% on 4.6 attempts through 13 appearances. That’s a huge dip offensively. To make matters worse, Richardson is ranked as one of the Mavs’ worst defenders and Dallas hasn’t seen any improvement on that end of the court. The Mavs were right to try and correct their defensive issues, but not at the expense of an elite shooter. Dallas currently sits in 13th place with an 8-11 record, meaning this deal has backfired thus far.
Detroit Pistons giving Jerami Grant the keys they wouldn’t give to Christian Wood
The Pistons had a much better offseason than I anticipated. The big contracts given to Grant and Mason Plumlee don’t look like horrible deals a month into the season. Both players are contributing at high rates, especially Grant. Grant has taken off like no expected, becoming one of the lead players in the Most Improved Player race. Has that resulted in more wins? No, but that’s far from the faults of Grant or Plumlee. The team lacks quality guard play. While keeping Wood would have meant not getting one of the two big additions (Plumlee/Grant), it would have been worth keeping Wood at the price the Houston Rockets signed him for. If they could have talked Grant into a slightly smaller deal, they could have had Grand and Wood playing together. While that may not have resulted in more wins, it would have given the fanbase some hope for the future, having two players in the running for Most Improved Player. The next step would have been finding a new home for Blake Griffin, if possible. Either way, losing Christian Wood and watching him flourish has to sting a bit for Detroit thus far.
Los Angeles Clippers handing Marcus Morris $64M over the next 4 seasons
Marcus Morris hasn’t been a bad player by any means. He’s averaging 11.4 PPG while shooting 44.0% from three. He’s helped make the Clippers the best 3-point shooting team in the league as they shoot 41.4% from that range (2nd place is at 39.8%). The issue with Morris is his actual impact, or lack thereof, on the team as the 3rd highest-paid player. Despite his solid numbers, he ranks towards the bottom of the Clippers rotational players in offensive AND defensive ratings. Hopefully for the Clippers’ sake, if Kawhi Leonard or Paul George decides to leave, Morris’ contract isn’t untradeable, and teams still value his average contributions despite his contract. Morris isn’t bad, he just simply hasn’t been worth the price tag thus far.
Miami Heat let Jae Crowder go in hopes of landing Giannis
This one is entirely due to hindsight. The Miami Heat were operating with belief that Giannis Antetokounmpo would become a Free Agent in 2021. That got shut down, however, when Giannis agreed to a supermax deal in December to remain with the Milwaukee Bucks. As a result, the Heat’s “hedge offer” to Crowder now looks silly. Crowder, instead, chose more security and signed a 3-year deal with the Phoenix Suns. The Suns currently sit 3.5 games better than the Heat and Crowder is a solid contributor as to why. While Crowder hasn’t been a consistent shooter, he’s offered enough floor spacing to not be a negative offensively. And his defensive efforts have helped a below-average defense rise to the Top 10 this year. Though Miami has more issues to them than just the loss of Crowder, having him in the lineup would have definitely helped the team stay afloat thus far.
Minnesota Timberwolves drafting need over anything else
It’s sad to say, and definitely too early, but Anthony Edwards seems to have been the wrong choice for the struggling Timberwolves. The Wolves have the worst record in the West and the 2nd worst record in the league, and Edwards is one of the reasons why. The biggest reason for the team’s ineptitude has been the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns (has only played in 4 of the team’s 18 games) but that doesn’t pardon Edward’s poor play. Edwards has, quite arguably, been the Wolves’ worst player 18 games into the season. He’s last in win shares, 2nd worst in PER, last in offensive and defensive ratings, and bottom 5 in true shooting percentage (out of players with 200+ minutes played for Minnesota). The Wolves aren’t expected to be good, especially with KAT being in and out (mostly out) of the lineup, but you’d hope for better play from the #1 overall pick. He’s had a few highlight dunks/plays here and there but hasn’t shown the flashes of promise we’ve seen from LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman thus far.
New Orleans Pelicans going with Stan Van Gundy to lead this nucleus
The Pelicans believed they were helping this young core by hiring a hard-nosed coach like Van Gundy. Instead, we’ve seen no improvement from their core. If anything, we’ve seen regression. Zion Williamson is quickly becoming one of the league’s worst defenders, Lonzo Ball looks like the odd-man-out, Kira Lewis looks like he was selected by the wrong team, and Jaxson Hayes looks nothing like the player they selected 8th overall last draft. Van Gundy simply hasn’t run this team well, not figuring out a system that works for the core he was given. It’s not all on Van Gundy, however, as the team’s overall build was in-question regardless of the system. A backcourt of Ball and Eric Bledsoe makes zero sense. And the frontcourt of Zion and Steven Adams also doesn’t make much sense. Veteran shooter, J.J. Redick, is having a down year and maybe him climbing out of his slump could help this team’s offense, but what will help a poor defense that already features solid individual defenders? We’re only 17 games into Van Gundy’s reign in New Orleans, but it looks ugly thus far.
Portland Trail Blazers relying on uninventive forwards… again
The Blazers have had a wing/forward average over 15 points per game only once in the Dame-CJ era (Carmelo Anthony with 15.4 in ‘19-’20). That era dates back to the 2014-2015 season, where the team moved on from LaMarcus Aldridge and handed the franchise to Damian Lillard (with CJ McCollum as his sidekick). They’ve consistently looked to utilize defensive-minded forwards next to the defensively lacking guards. And each year, we’ve seen the same results, a disappointing playoff exit with teams zeroing in on the backcourt. They’ve yet again gone the same route this past offseason by adding Derrick Jones Jr. and Robert Covington. Covington was added to offer solid 3&D play while Jones was added to bolster some aerial excitement in addition to defensive versatility. Neither player has delivered on the “3” portion of 3&D as both are shooting below 28% from three. And the defense hasn’t taken any steps forward as the Blazers still rank towards the bottom of the league on that. Fortunately for the Blazers, the pairing is only owed around $22M next year so this experiment isn’t damaging financially. However, it looks like the Front Office may have failed to build around the backcourt yet again. Going with defensive players to mask the backcourt’s deficiencies hasn’t worked thus far.
Toronto Raptors failed to replace Gasol and Ibaka
The Toronto Raptors have been surprisingly “bad” to start the season. They were expected to suffer a bit after losing Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, two underrated veteran bigs. However, this steep drop off wasn’t expected. They currently stand at 7-12 and are 13th in the Eastern Conference, and that’s largely due to their inferior inside presence. Chris Boucher has stepped in and did a good job of protecting the rim while stretching the floor on offense (44.9% from three on 3.6 attempts per game). Aaron Baynes, however, hasn’t been a quality replacement big. Baynes has been a negative on the offensive end with his lost shooting touch and overall efficiency on that end. And even though Boucher’s numbers look good, the combination of him and Baynes just hasn’t matched the impact that Ibaka and Gasol had on the rest of the team. Toronto has gone from a Top 10 rebounding team to a Bottom 5 team on the boards. They’ve also fallen from #1 in points against the middle of the pack this season. It’s not all on Boucher and Baynes, but Toronto just doesn’t look like the same well-oiled team thus far.
Washington Wizards making questionable move after questionable move
I didn’t see the Wizards being this bad. I actually believed they’d be a playoff quality team with Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal leading the way. Through 15 games, they’re 3-12 and have no semblance of being a solid NBA team. Beal is putting up MVP-worthy numbers, yet he’d be lucky to make an All-NBA team at this rate. Westbrook has looked horrible while being reunited with his former Head Coach Scott Brooks. The team’s list issues are deep, but it starts with Coach Brooks. His defensive scheme has failed these past three seasons as Washington has been a Bottom 3 defense each year. At some point, changes need to be made if the Wizards want to salvage Beal’s faith in the organization. And while Westbrook has been a far cry from what we’ve come to expect from him, trading for him hasn’t been the Wizards’ worst offseason decision. That happens to be handing Davis Bertans $80M over 5 years. Westbrook has been a better than expected 3-point shooter through 10 games, shooting 33.3% on 4.5 attempts per game. Bertans, on the other hand, was expected to continue being one of the league’s best long-range snipers yet he’s shooting 33.7% on 7.7 attempts per game. Neither player has helped the team much. Both Westbrook and Bertans are bottom 5 in win shares on the team (200+ minutes played) and both players have been enigmatic from the field overall. What makes Bertans worse than Westbrook, besides the expected 3-point shooting, is at least Westbrook has been one of the team’s better defenders. The Wizards still have time to turn things around, especially if Westbrook can get fully healthy, but this looks like the worst Wizards’ team since their 19-63 season in ‘08-’09. None of the Wizards’ offseason moves have panned out thus far.