MLB Power Rankings: The Dodgers Have Come Alive
The top 2 and bottom 10 seem to be firm with very little changes between them from week-to-week. But from about 7-15 is a big surprise when it comes time to put the rankings together. Teams don't usually blow other teams out, so the jumps and falls are noteworthy. While our darling Pittsburgh Pirates have crashed a bit, the Dodgers have skyrocketed, for their first placement in the Top 5. But for a team that has dropped in rankings each installment, the question is can they sustain it or even make it to the Top 3 next week?
PRIME TIME MOOKIE. pic.twitter.com/LRbDWPfgr2
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 8, 2023
Glossary: SU - W/L wise | RD - run differential | Early - Games played before 4:00 PM | PM - Games played between 4:00 PM - 7:59 PM | Night - Games played 8:00 PM and later |
Notes: Tiebreakers in RD are settled by team with more wins and edges are given only for top half of teams
First Ranking | Second Ranking | Third Ranking
- Tampa Bay Rays (28-7 SU, 18-14-3 O/U, 115 RD) - Last Week (1)
- Texas Rangers (20-13 SU, 21-11-1 O/U, 85 RD) - Last Week (2)
- Atlanta Braves (24-11 SU, 21-13-1 O/U, 56 RD) - Last Week (5)
- Chicago Cubs (17-17 SU, 14-19-1 O/U, 46 RD) - Last Week (4)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (21-14 SU, 19-15-1 O/U, 43 RD) - Last Week (13)
- Baltimore Orioles (22-12 SU, 20-13-1 O/U, 29 RD) - Last Week (7)
- Minnesota Twins (19-16 SU, 14-18-3 O/U, 26 RD) - Last Week (8)
- Boston Red Sox (21-15 SU, 24-11-1 O/U, 25 RD) - Last Week (16)
- Toronto Blue Jays (21-14 SU, 16-17-2 O/U, 20 RD) - Last Week (10)
- Houston Astros (17-17 SU, 18-15-1 O/U, 20 RD) - Last Week (9)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (20-15 SU, 17-17-1 O/U, 18 RD) - Last Week (3)
- Milwaukee Brewers (19-15 SU, 15-18-1 O/U, 17 RD) - Last Week (6)
- San Francisco Giants (15-18 SU, 16-16-1 O/U, 15 RD) - Last Week (23)
- Los Angeles Angels (19-16 SU, 17-16-2 O/U, 12 RD) - Last Week (12)
- Seattle Mariners (17-17 SU, 17-15-2 O/U, 11 RD) - Last Week (17)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (19-15 SU, 18-14-2 O/U, 10 RD) - Last Week (14)
- New York Yankees (18-17 SU, 12-22-1 O/U, 3 RD) - Last Week (11)
- San Diego Padres (18-17 SU, 13-20-2 O/U, -4 RD) - Last Week (22)
- New York Mets (17-18 SU, 15-19-1 O/U, -10 RD) - Last Week (15)
- St. Louis Cardinals (11-24 SU, 17-16-2 O/U, -19 RD) - Last Week (19)
- Cleveland Guardians (16-18 SU, 11-22-1 O/U, -21 RD) - Last Week (21)
- Washington Nationals (14-20 SU, 13-19-2 O/U, -27 RD) - Last Week (24)
- Philadelphia Phillies (16-19 SU, 16-18-1 O/U, -29 RD) - Last Week (18)
- Colorado Rockies (14-21 SU, 15-18-2 O/U, -35 RD) - Last Week (28)
- Cincinnati Reds (14-20 SU, 18-16 O/U, -36 RD) - Last Week (20)
- Detroit Tigers (15-18 SU, 17-15-1 O/U, -41 RD) - Last Week (26)
- Chicago White Sox (12-23 SU, 19-13-3 O/U, -54 RD) - Last Week (29)
- Miami Marlins (17-18 SU, 15-19-1 O/U, -56 RD) - Last Week (25)
- Kansas City Royals (9-26 SU, 17-16-2 O/U, -66 RD) - Last Week (27)
- Oakland Athletics (8-27 SU, 21-13-1 O/U, -124 RD) - Last Week (30)
I will be moving the edges - and generally commentary section here as putting it in the list slows down due to formatting. Plus, it's probably a lot cleaner looking here anyway.
The idea is to reward the teams in the Top 15 with some sort of betting edge or general observation either of late or season-wide. We don't need to reward losers that want to drop out of the Top 15 - I'm looking at you New York Baseball teams!
Also I want to give better edges, so for some in the Top 15 I'll pass on giving an edge not because there isn't an edge but because there isn't anything particularly sticking out.
Atlanta - Home Favorites go over at a 76.4% rate. Games in our PM slate - see the glossary above - hit over at 66.66% and games with a total of 8 or 8.5 hit over at 77.77%.
Chicago Cubs - Seeing a .500 team in the Top 5 maybe surprising. But run differential does not simply award winning and punish losing. It rewards winning big and losing by small margins. The thought process then is this is a ranking of confidence more than anything. I'll explain using the Cubbies. Of their 17 wins, 15 have come by the Cubs winning by 2 or more. 8 of their 17 losses have been only by a run. This means you can trust the run line if they're a favorite and the run line if they're a dog. Hence the higher confidence in this team.
Los Angeles Dodgers - If they're a favorite, there is something for you to take. At home, lean the moneyline as they are 12-5 straight up. On the road, lean over as they are 10-4-1 O/U.
Baltimore - 78.9% money line as a favorite - home and away. The over hits at 72.7% as away underdogs.
Minnesota - Home Favorites are 76.9% for the money line. Totals at 8 and 8.5 are 2-10-1 O/U.
Boston - PM overs cash at 77.2% rate, I'd lean that for any total between 8 and 9.5.
Toronto - Home money lines - as a favorite and a dog - hit at a 75% clip. As a home team they are 3-8-1 O/U so lean under compared to 13-9-1 O/U on the road.
Pittsburgh - They've dropped of late so pick your spots. I'd only take Pittsburgh as a favorite for the time being, 87.5% as a favorite money line both home and away.
Los Angeles Angels - Totals of 8 and 8.5 are going over 66.66%. Away favorite money lines cash at 71.4%.
Seattle - Night overs - see glossary for night time slate definition - are hitting at 66.66%.