NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2021
Tail at your own risk, and let us know how we did. Follow the crew on the Bird App: Alex, Dwa, Shood, Ty. Good luck and let’s make some money!
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8
New York Jets (2-5, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U)
Line: IND -10.5 | Total: O/U 46
Actual: IND 45-30
Pick: Elijah Moore O28.5 Rec Yards -108 1.08U (Alex), U 8.5 -110 1U (Ty)
Elijah Moore’s line looks like a smash play with Corey Davis doubtful for Thursday’s matchup. He has had 6+ targets in the last two games with the game that Davis missed is where he had 67 yards. Moore was dynasty twitter’s darling this offseason and I like this matchup to showcase some of his talent. - Alex
I love the under because we got some struggle squads going today. But you know me, first quarter bets all the way. Literally as I was typing the first quarter total just moved from 9 to 8.5. Every point matters but I still like the under for that. - Ty
Houston Texans (1-7, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U) at Miami Dolphins (1-7, 2-6 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
Line: MIA -4 | Total: O/U 45
Actual: MIA 17-9
Pick: HOU +4 LEAN (Ty)
Tyrod is byke for the Texans and that’s probably led to everyone and they moms jumping on Houston. Include me in that. Covering is one thing but a loss to the Texans might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in terms of Tua’s tenure in Miami. - Ty
Denver Broncos (4-4, 4-4 ATS, 2-6 O/U) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1, 7-0 ATS, 5-2 O/U)
Line: DAL -10 | Total: O/U 50
Actual: DEN 30-16
Pick: Tony Pollard O37.5 Rush Yards -114 1.14U (Alex), U 50 LEAN (Ty)
Pollard has been given a consistent role in this offense and outside of week 1 and last week, he has covered this total. Dak is back so the offense will return to its normalcy. Denver traded away longtime cornerstone Von Miller so this defense loses a key figure. Pollard should get double digit carries and should cover with ease. - Alex
The line is wild high here, even with Dak back in the lineup. And yeah maybe Dallas goes onto win and cover but I’m staying away from that. I do like the under so I’ll lean that and maybe bet it if I’m feeling spicy come kickoff. - Ty
Minnesota Vikings (3-4, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
Line: BAL -7 | Total: O/U 50.5
Actual: BAL 34-31
Pick: Mark Andrews O52.5 Rec Yards -114 1.14U (Alex), O 10 First Quarter +105 LEAN (Ty)
Andrews has really established himself as a premier tight end this season and this line remains low. He has covered 5 of 7 games this season and should make it 6. Last week the game script was against Andrews being a target hog and still received over 22% target share (good for 2nd overall amongst TE in week 8). -Alex
I can see this being a scoring fest so I’ll dip my toe in the over taking O 10 in Q1. - Ty
New England Patriots (4-4, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U) at Carolina Panthers (4-4, 4-4 ATS, 2-6 O/U)
Line: NE -3 | Total: O/U 41.5
Actual: NE 24-6
Pick: NO PICK
No clue where to go with this game, hope both teams have fun lol. Like the under but not enough to touch it, passing this one. - Ty
Buffalo Bills (5-2, 5-2 ATS, 3-4 O/U) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6, 2-5 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Line: BUF -14.5 | Total: O/U 49
Actual: JAX 9-6
Pick: BUF -8 First Half -110 LEAN (Ty)
I’ve tried to show some love to Jacksonville last week and they pissed down their leg as the moment was just too big for them smfh. Not making that mistake this time nor doubting Buffalo like I did earlier in the season. I like Buffalo to cover
Cleveland Browns (4-4, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
Line: CIN -2 | Total: O/U 48
Actual: CLE 41-16
Pick: Austin Hooper O23.5 Rec Yards -114 1.14U (Alex), CIN -1 First Quarter +125 LEAN (Ty)
Hooper has benefited from OBJ’s absence and now that he is gone, Hooper should continue to get targets in this offense. Hooper has been targeted more in the last two weeks; this trend should continue. -Alex
Like Cincy and a bit confused at why this line is so close. ??♂️ - Ty
Las Vegas Raiders (5-2, 4-3 ATS, 4-3 O/U) at New York Giants (2-6, 4-4 ATS, 3-4-1 O/U)
Line: LV -3 | Total: O/U 46.5
Actual: NYG 23-16
Pick: NO PICK
Another one where I hope both teams have fun and hope Carr throws it to Bryan Edwards since I just picked him up in fantasy, no pick here. - Ty
Atlanta Falcons (3-4, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U) at New Orleans Saints (5-2, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U)
Line: NO -6.5 | Total: O/U 42.5
Actual: ATL 27-25
Pick: Mark Ingram O29.5 Rush Yards -114 1.14U (Alex), Cordarrelle Patterson O 33.5 Rushing Yards -115 0.5U, Cordarrelle Patterson O 36.5 Receiving Yards -115 0.5U (Ty)
Ingram’s homecoming back to New Orleans was met with 6 carries and I see that continue. Saints want to keep Kamara fresh and providing some run for ingram should cover this with no problem. Falcons will not be able to keep Kamara or Ingram. Ingram is too low - if you want to add to a parlay and get some alt line action I would play up to 35.5 +odds. - Alex
Patterson props, isn’t that the only reason to watch the Falcons anyway? - Ty
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3, 4-3 ATS, 2-4-1 O/U) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
Line: Pick Em| Total: O/U 49.5
Actual: LAC 27-24
Pick: Dallas Goedart O53.5 Rec Yards -114 1.14U (Alex), Jalen Hurts Anytime TD +150 0.5U (Ty)
Goedart has reached season highs in yards in back to back weeks since Ertz was traded to Arizona. I love this line and am surprised the line wasn’t closer to 60. Chargers struggle with tight ends so this is a smash play. - Alex
Like the Chargers here but Philly seems to get up for these kinda games. I’ll take a chance on a Hurts rushing TD because why not? - Ty
Green Bay Packers (7-1, 7-1 ATS, 2-6 O/U) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4, 2-6 ATS, 4-3-1 O/U)
Line: KC -7 | Total: O/U 48.5
Actual: KC 13-7
Pick: Darrel Williams O17.5 Rec Yards -114 1.14U (Alex)
Williams has proven to be the receiving back in this Kansas offense and has seen at least 4 targets since the game CEH went down. This total still seems low and I expect Mahomes to hit his RB - Gore who got some run last game did not have a target. - Alex
I’ve taken Mahomes off fantasy football punishment so I need him to get his shit together. Don’t like anything in this game betting wise since I know nothing about Jordan Love and how he’s gonna play and don’t trust KC enough to ride them. But Mahomes better get his shit together or else! - Ty
Arizona Cardinals (7-1, 6-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
Line: SF -3.5 | Total: O/U 45
Actual: ARI 31-17
Pick: NO PICK
Don’t hate the line moving to SF with this being a divisional matchup in the Bay. Don’t know that I think the Niners have the firepower but anything can happen I suppose. No pick here, you should probably stay away too. - Ty
Tennessee Titans (6-2, 6-2 ATS, 5-3 O/U) at Los Angeles Rams (7-1, 4-4 ATS, 5-2-1 O/U)
Line: LAR -7.5 | Total: O/U 53
Actual: TEN 28-16
Pick: Adrian Peterson O32.5 Rush Yards -114 1.14U (Alex), Kupp 2+ TD +280 0.5U (Ty)
Peterson should jump into the bell cow roll as the Titans offense was predicated on Henry getting peppered with carries. McNichols has not been given a heavy workload in his career so expect the Titans to lean on Peterson with their rushing attack. - Alex
Cooper Kupp. That’s it. - Ty
Chicago Bears (3-5, 3-5 ATS, 2-6 O/U) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3, 3-4 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Line: PIT -6.5 | Total: O/U 39
Actual: PIT 29-27
Pick: O 39 LEAN (Ty) Pat Freiermuth O35.5 Rec Yards -115 1.15U
Like the over in this but I understand why the total is so low with two teams allergic to the over. Maybe I also just really want success for Justin Fields but yeah gimme the over especially while it’s in the 30s. - Ty
Pat Freiermuth has been the next best thing at tight end for the Steelers since Heath Miller. Big Ben has treated him as such and has targeted his tight end 7 times in each of the last two games. This trend should continue as he has had 58 and 44 in his last two games. - Alex