NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2021
You’re potentially here because you love us and there are three double-digit games on the slate you have no idea what side to bet. Well, you’re in the right place. We have the Rams, Cards and Bucs as well as analysis, picks and leans for every game in Week 7. Didn’t get around to crunching numbers but that’ll come soon, til then just trust us bro. Let’s make some money!
Also feel free to connect with us on the socials as well to talk picks: Alex, Dwa, Shood, Ty
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6
Denver Broncos (3-3, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U) at Cleveland Browns (3-3, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U)
Line: CLE -1.5 | Total: O/U 40.5
Actual: CLE 17-14
Pick: DEN First Half ML +120 0.5 Units (Ty), Peoples-Jones O 30.5 Receiving 0.5 Units (Ty), Melvin Gordon O40.5 Rush Yards -130 1U (Alex)
No Baker, no Chubb, no Hunt. So unless you’re taking the Broncos or props you’re better off passing here. This is Denver’s first game as a road dog and it’ll be important for them to try to salvage any of the sparkle the beginning of their season had. I’ll take some toe dips here with Broncos getting off to a fast start, and I believe in getting in and getting out, hence the first half ML play. Peoples-Jones burst on the scene last week and so look for him to potentially be a safety blanket for Case Keenum, that 30.5 line is really low so why not sprinkle a lil cheese there. - Ty
Everyone is so infatuated with Javonte Williams (and rightfully so) people are forgetting Gordon still gets consistent snaps in this offense. The Browns are without Mayfield, Hunt, and Chubb. OBJ is a game time decision. Case Keenum does not ‘push’ the needle for me in this game so I expect the Browns offense to struggle to maintain drives against the Broncos defense. The Broncos should control the tempo in this game and allow both of these running backs to get their touches. Gordon has hit this in 4 of 6 games this season. Browns defense is stingy against the runs but the Browns offense won’t hold drives, their run defense should bend not break. Take the over. - Alex
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2, 3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
Line: BAL -6.5 | Total: O/U 46.5
Actual: TBD
Pick: U 46.5 1U (Ty), Rashod Bateman O37.5 Rec Yards -112 1U (Alex)
This game is very intriguing. Here are a few nuggets: the only Bengal game to go over was Week 1’s OT win against Minnesota, the Ravens are 2-0 straight up as a home favorite and 2-0 straight up with 2 unders in 1PM games, Cincy has logged 4 unders in five 1PM games, and lastly Baltimore is 3-1 straight up but 1-3 ATS when favored. Do with all that what you will but what seems clear is an under pattern and a chance for Cincy to cover even if they don’t win. - Ty
With 6 targets in his first game off IR, Bateman is the play in this matchup. Jackson’s views Bateman as a quality target and with Watkins out, this should be an easy cash. - Alex
Washington Football Team (2-4, 1-5 ATS, 4-2 O/U) at Green Bay Packers (5-1, 5-1 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
Line: GB -7.5 | Total: O/U 48.5
Actual: TBD
Pick: GB -7.5 1U (Ty)
I’ve said it every week. Green Bay is legit. At 5-1 ATS and they’re at home, I don’t think there’s much to second guess. - Ty
Atlanta Falcons (2-3, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U) at Miami Dolphins (1-5, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
Line: ATL -2.5 | Total: O/U 47.5
Actual: TBD
Pick: ATL -2.5 LEAN (Ty), Cordarrelle Patterson O39.5 Rec Yards -110 1U (Alex)
If you take out Weeks 1 and 2 for the Falcons - big losses at the hands of the Eagles and Bucs - they’re 2-1 straight up and against the spread since then. Miami has a lot going on; there are rumors linking them to acquiring Deshaun Watson and they’re coming off a London trip where they gave Jacksonville their first win. Is Atlanta good? Of course not but they should be able to get a result against an opponent they’re supposed to beat. - Ty
Patterson has made the most of his touches this season. He has hit the over in his last 4 games with a minimum target share of 5. The game looks to be an over so points will be scored. Falcons will continue to involve their dual player. - Alex
New York Jets (1-4, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 O/U) at New England Patriots (2-4, 2-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
Line: NE -7 | Total: O/U 42.5
Actual: TBD
Pick:
I know what you’re thinking. Bill Belichick against his hated rival the Jets and a rookie QB. A recipe for the Pats to run away with this by a longshot. But without that come from behind win against Houston, this is a 1-5 team. While they put up a lovely, inspirational fight trying to dethrone the Cowboys and their undefeated ATS run, it should be hard to feel comfortable backing New England if you’re viewing them objectively. As a home favorite they’re 0-2 straight up and against the spread with two unders, for the record. Sure the Jets are 0-3 in both categories as road dogs but the point here is the only way to play this is the total. - Ty
New York Giants (1-5, 2-4 ATS, 3-2-1 O/U) at Carolina Panthers (3-3, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U)
Line: CAR -3 | Total: O/U 43
Actual: TBD
Pick:
This feels like a winnable game for the Giants but with the slew of injuries facing Big Blue, pulling out a result might be an uphill battle on the road. They are 2-1 ATS as road underdogs so if you’re feeling particularly ballsy go for it. But after starting off 3-0 straight up and ATS, they’re now the complete opposite at 0-3 in both categories. Many pleas were copped in apologizing to Sam Darnold for slandering his name in those first three weeks. But he has 6 INTs in the last three contests while only logging 1 during their win streak. Looks like the fate of this game and the rest of their season will be squarely on his shoulders, especially with news that they are not in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. - Ty
Philadelphia Eagles (2-4, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-2, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
Line: LV -3 | Total: O/U 49
Actual: TBD
Pick: U 49 LEAN (Ty), Dallas Goedart O47.5 Rec Yards -114 1U (Alex)
Not much for you on this one. The Eagles are 2-1 as a road dog. The Raiders are 2-0 straight up in 4PM games, whereas this is Philly’s first time in that slot this season. I’m leaning under in this, as these teams have both gone under in 2 of their last 3 games and neither feels like a dynamic, firepower-y sorta offense. - Ty
Goedart has been crowned the future of the Eagles passing game for years and after trading Ertz to the Cardinals, he should be benefiting immediately. Ertz was getting targets in the end zone, those should be allocated to Goedart (and Smith). - Alex
Detroit Lions (0-6, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U) at Los Angeles Rams (5-1, 4-2 ATS, 4-1-1 O/U)
Line: LAR -16 | Total: O/U 50.5
Actual: TBD
Pick: LAR -16 1U (Ty), Sony Michel O6.5 Carries -114 1U (Alex)
Now we’re getting to the games everyone came here to see. The three double-digit spreads in the 4PM games. I’ll spread the nuggets as they apply to each team. Detroit has been on the other side of the 8 double-digit spread games this season. They’re 1-1 ATS but both games have come against NFC North foes. While there are 8 games that closed as double-digits, it would’ve been 9 if the Rams-Giants game from last week stayed - it opened at -10.5. The Rams covered not only the closing spread but the opening double-digit as well, and would’ve been the only road double-digit spread favorite this season. But of course it makes sense that Vegas is comfortable laying these spreads with big home favorites. As much as I love underdogs, the pattern here is that the favorite has covered the double-digit spread 6 out of the 8. I’m not bucking science, gimme the Rams -16! - Ty
In a game with a spread of 16, Rams should be in the drivers seat for most of the game. With that in mind, Michel should get extra carries in garbage time. He has hit this 4/6 times this season and is trending towards making it 5. - Alex
Houston Texans (1-5, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U) at Arizona Cardinals (6-0, 5-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U)
Line: ARI -17.5 | Total: O/U 47.5
Actual: TBD
Pick: ARI -10.5 First Half 1U (Ty),
Again, in our 8 double-digit spread games the home favorite has covered 6 of the 8 games. I know I say it every week that at some point Arizona loses, but I’m not sure if I’m banking on this game being the one. Now if you’re into all of that, this game has all the itchings of a team the Cardinals are overlooking. The Cardinals host Green Bay in a short week for Week 8 and may have done all their Aaron Rodgers homework and not spent adequate time on Houston. But…I’m not buying it. Also I’ve turned my life over to first quarter and first half bets so here’s one - I do like the full game total too. - Ty
Chicago Bears (3-3, 3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U)
Line: TB -12.5 | Total: O/U 47
Actual: TBD
Pick:
So here’s a lil nugget. The only two games the Bucs have covered this season were the two double-digit spreads they had against Atlanta and Miami. But…the Bucs fan in me tells you the Bucs have a magical way of making teams look beautiful so the fan in me would not be surprised to see Chicago cover. I would tell you Bucs ML but the price on that in your sportsbook is probably way too pricey. Maybe throw it in on a parlay you have cooked up, but for this ol’ column here I’m staying away. If I wasn’t a fan I’d be all over the Bucs covering this but I’m shooketh. - Ty
Indianapolis Colts (2-4, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 O/U)
Line: SF -4 | Total: O/U 44
Actual: TBD
Pick: IND +4 LEAN, U 44 LEAN (Ty) , Nyheim Hines U15.5 Rec Yards -115 1U (Alex)
This is an often talked about game. I definitely lean the under here. Jimmy G just doesn’t excite me in terms of throwing up a lot of points. I like Indy here but have no clue which Carson Wentz will show up in this marquee matchup. I’ll be taking Colts +4 in my spread pool and I’ll throw it here with the under as leans if you wanna jump on the train but I’m all shrugs emoji on this SNF game. - Ty
Hines went from being the passing down back to now just playing a reserved roll. His snap percentage has fallen 3 straight weeks in a row and I expect it to continue. Taylor flashed his ability to run after the catch against Baltimore and that might’ve changed the game plan. He has only had 3 targets combined in the last 3 weeks. - Alex
New Orleans Saints (3-2, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4, 3-3 ATS, 1-4-1 O/U)
Line: NO -4.5 | Total: O/U 42.5
Actual: TBD
Pick: Gerald Everett O18.5 Rec Yards -115 1U (Alex)
In PTB - new post just went live today, shameless plug - I talked about how the Saints have been carefully managing this whole Famous Jameis experiment. And quite frankly, it’s worked thus far in terms of keeping Winston from throwing the ball to the other team. I am rooting for Geno to ball out in Russ’ absence but taking the Seahawks in this isn’t quite as fun as it was taking them last week against the Steelers. I have a funny feeling Seattle covers, but NO sneaks out victorious. No feelings strong enough for a play or lean though. - Ty
Everett returned to the lineup last week and received 3 targets for 40 yards. Geno Smith doesn’t move the needle for the Seahawks to win many games but he should provide ample opportunity for Everett. 18.5 is too low imo and would play it up to 21.5. - Alex