NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2021
We’re working on organizing our tracking information to be able to provide you with a detailed look at how our WYE cappers have been doing and where their strengths seem to be thus far this season.
Of course, you’ll continue to get analysis from each capper on games they like, what action they’re thinking for each week and leans in the event they aren’t taking action on a particular contest. As always, share with any sports gambling friends you have. Let’s grow our little community.
Also feel free to connect with us on the socials as well to talk picks: Alex, Dwa, Shood, Ty
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 O/U) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U)
Line: TB -7 | Total: O/U 52.5
Actual: TB 28-22
Pick: O 26.5 First Half -115 1 Unit, Mike Evans Anytime TD Scorer +100 2 Units (Ty), Ronald Jones O18.5 Rush Yards -110 1U (Alex) PHI +7 -115 1 Unit (Shood), Jalen Hurts O 42.5 Rushing -110 1 Unit (Dwa)
Philly pulled out a shocker last week in Charlotte upsetting the Panthers. This Thursday they host one of the darlings of the league in the Bucs. The assumption here is probably that Tampa wins as they’ve been putting up big points on the scoreboard throughout the season. The Eagles have let KC and Dallas hit them for 40 so the fan in me hopes they continue their generosity. Philadelphia is 0-2 both straight up and against the spread as a home underdog. Think the Bucs win but wouldn’t be surprised if our anemic passing defense let’s Philly keep it close and cover. I like the first half O 26.5 at -115. - Ty
This play is definitely not one that will be easy to jump on but I like the numbers. Ronald Jones is not a reliable player to bet on with his usage but the value is there. His rushing total is set at 18.5 and he has hit that in 3 of the 5 games so far this season. The Eagles are giving up the 3rd most rushing yards a game (142 per game). He has gotten at least 5 carries in the last 4 games so I expect him to hit the over. - Alex
Miami Dolphins (1-4, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 O/U)
Line: MIA -3.5 | Total: O/U 47
Actual: JAX 23-20
Pick: NO PICK
It really seems like the NFL hates London since they’ve given them another Bad Bowl a second week in a row. I didn’t get it out in time but I took a flyer on Trevor Lawrence’s passing TD prop of O 1.5. Send prayers. - Ty
Los Angeles Chargers (4-1, 4-1 ATS, 1-4 O/U) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1, 2-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Line: BAL -3 | Total: O/U 52
Actual: BAL 34-6
Pick: LAC +3.5 1U (Shood)(Ty)
Should be a good one between two 4-1 teams. Baltimore has looked a bit sloppy all year, relying on late game comebacks against KC, Detroit and Indy. I don’t think the Chargers are one of those teams that’ll easily let them back in if they fall behind. Chargers are 2-0 straight up and against the spread as a road dog, this is a great time to hop on board. - Ty
Minnesota Vikings (2-3, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U) at Carolina Panthers (3-2, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U)
Line: MIN -1 | Total: O/U 46
Actual: MIN 34-28
Pick: U 46 LEAN, CAR ML +105 (Ty)
Vegas seems to like Minnesota as no line of theirs besides the Lions game has seen them giving more than 3.5. I am not so confident and it’s because my narrative against Kirk Cousins will not allow me to. The SKOL gang is 0-2 straight up on the road and Carolina’s only home loss has been last week’s Eagles game. Plus it sounds as if the Panthers may see “The White Knight” make his return this week. Like the under as a lean and Carolina ML as a play. - Ty
Green Bay Packers (4-1, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U) at Chicago Bears (3-2, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U)
Line: GB -4.5 | Total: O/U 45
Actual: GB 24-14
Pick: GB +4.5 LEAN (Ty), ML Parlay w/ KC 1U (Shood)
Another week, another reminder that people’s beef with the Packers is all about Week 1’s lopsided loss. Are the Packers good defensively? No, but you can argue it’s been that way the past couple of years. In Aaron Rodgers I trust! - Ty
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2, 2-3 ATS, 1-4 O/U) at Detroit Lions (0-5, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U)
Line: CIN -3.5 | Total: O/U 47.5
Actual: CIN 34-11
Pick: DET +3.5 1U (Ty)
Detroit are ATS darlings. While I will continue spewing my narrative about Eric Bieniemy, I am rooting for our sad little cats to get their first win. I think they can do it here, being at home, where they are 2-0 ATS at. - Ty
Houston Texans (1-4, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts (1-4, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U)
Line: IND -9.5 | Total: O/U 42.5
Actual: IND 31-3
Pick: HOU +9 -110 (Ty)
Both these AFC South members are coming off epic collapses in the fourth quarter in Week 5. The Colts were up 22-9 on the Ravens on Monday and Davis Mills and the Texans seemed to put an end to Belichick’s streak of torturing rookie QBs. Both leads went bye-bye and I imagine these teams can’t wait to meet each other and seek revenge for their shortcomings. I understand the Colts line being where it is but my spidey-senses are telling me Houston has this. While both teams are 1-3 straight up in 1PM games, Houston is 3-1 ATS with 3 overs in that time slot. And this is Indy’s first game of the season as a home favorite. And if you need any more convincing, if you take out Mills’ match against what looks like the best team in football (the Bills) he has 5 TDs to only 1 INT…gimme the Texans here. - Ty
Los Angeles Rams (4-1, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U) at New York Giants (1-4, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U)
Line: LAR -9.5 | Total: O/U 49
Actual: LAR 38-11
Pick: Darrell Henderson O76.5 Rush Yards -115 1U (Alex)
If Daniel Jones was healthy, I’d lean Giants covering at home. But he’s not, even if he plays. As tempting as it may be to take the Rams, I’m not convinced this is cake. I’m passing. - Ty
The combination of the Giants allowing the 5th most rush yards per game (138.4) and the 8 point spread, game script should be ideal to hit the over. Henderson has hit this in the 2 games after his injury (injury should be behind him). - Alex
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3, 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U) at Washington Football Team (2-3, 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U)
Line: KC -7 | Total: O/U 55.5
Actual: KC 31-13
Pick: O 55.5 -110 (Ty), ML Parlay w/ GB 1U (Shood)
I love the over here. Both teams are 4-1 O/U. KC as a road favorite has registered overs in both contests and DC’s only game - this being the second - as a home dog also went over. The only games this season to close at 55.5 or higher were the Rams-Bucs and Chiefs-Bills, both of which - you guessed it - went over. Whether it ends up being close because the Chiefs are allergic to covering games or it ends up being a blowout because the Football Team is also allergic to covering games, I like the total to be over 55.5. - Ty
Arizona Cardinals (5-0, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U) at Cleveland Browns (3-2, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U)
Line: CLE -3 | Total: O/U 49.5
Actual: ARI 37-14
Pick: ARI ML +130 LEAN, ARI +3 -115 (Ty)
I get that Arizona has to lose at some point. I really do. But I’m not convinced that this is the week that has to happen. Sure, the Brownies are 2-0 as a home favorite straight up…BUT they’re 0-2 in 4PM contests AND the Desert Birdz are 2-0 as a road dog and 3-0 in 4PM games. I think Cleveland has gotten here being able to control the pacing of their games but the times they’ve faced dynamic offenses haven’t been so hot. KC was able to come back in Week 1 after the Browns led for three quarters, Houston got to 20 and covered a e+13.5 spread and the Chargers also struck paydirt in the 4th to rally and beat the Browns.
Las Vegas Raiders (3-2, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U) at Denver Broncos (3-2, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U)
Line: DEN -3.5 | Total: O/U 44
Actual: LV 34-24
Pick: DEN ML -180 LEAN, U 44 -110 (Ty) Hunter Renfrow O52.5 Rec Yards -114 1U (Alex)
The Raiders are mired in controversy with the now two-week long Gruden e-mail mess. It’s resulted in his resignation but I don’t think that black cloud goes away just yet. The under has hit in 3 of Las Vegas’ 5 matches and the last two in a row. Denver only has one over on the season too. My read on Teddy Two Gloves is that he can beat teams the Broncos should beat and has a chance to keep it competitive in games against superior opponents. I like Denver straight up and the under here so I’ll lean the ML since it’s a bit pricey and play the U. - Ty
Renfrow receptions has been at 4.5 all season and the books finally moved the line. We move to yards as he has had a consistent target share (2nd on team). He has hit this total in 4/5 and his target share should have him at 5-6 receptions. This game should be competitive (ideal game script) - Alex
Dallas Cowboys (4-1, 5-0 ATS, 4-1 O/U) at New England Patriots (2-3, 2-3 ATS, 1-4 O/U)
Line: DAL -3.5 | Total: O/U 51
Actual: DAL 35-29
Pick: DAL +3.5 2U (Ty) Dalton Schultz O4.5 Rec +125 1U (Alex), Ezekiel Elliot O78.5 Rush Yards -115 1U (Alex)
They’re 5-0 ATS and New England almost lost to Houston last week, there’s no reason to overthink this. And yes, I’m aware that first sentence will be used against me if the Pats win. But that won’t happen. - Ty
Schultz has hit the over on 4.5 receptions in 4/5 games. Patriots have done well against TEs this season but have not faced anyone as talented in the passing game as Schultz (Gesicki only had 3 targets in his game). He has had 7, 8, 8 targets in the last 3 games showing a consistent chemistry with Dak. Take the plus money. Zeke has been tearing up defenses in last 3 weeks averaging over 5 yards a carry and over 110 yards a game. Patriots defense is susceptible to the run and the Cowboys have had a rush play on over 56% of their pays. I would also take Pollard O42.5 - Alex
Seattle Seahawks (2-3, 2-3 ATS, 1-4 O/U) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3, 2-3 ATS, 1-4 O/U)
Line: PIT -5 | Total: O/U 42.5
Actual: PIT 23-20
Pick: Geno Smith O32.5 Pass Att -105 1U (Alex), Alex Collins O10.5 Rec Yards -110 1U
(Alex)
Rooting for Geno but this is a nasty game. I’m staying away. - Ty
Steelers run defense is 9th in yards allowed per game (100.4). Both props will benefit from this as Geno Smith is leading an injured Seattle offense to Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense (even on non-supported game script games) has been on the receiving end of at least 36 attempts in 4/5 games this year. Expect Smith to get 35+. With that in mind Alex Collins will get a few dump offs. He has had at least 2 receptions and 25 yards in his last two games with starter usage. He should hit this total on his first catch. - Alex
Buffalo Bills (4-1, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U) at Tennessee Titans (3-2, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U)
Line: BUF -5.5 | Total: O/U 54
Actual: TEN 34-31
Pick: BUF -5.5 2U (Ty)
I’ve been doubting Buffalo all season I have no choice but to go this route today. Tennessee is cool but seems inconsistent. Gimme Jaheim Allen under the bright lights.