NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2021
Just like Aaron Rodgers, we need some warming up to get ready for the NFL season. If he could look that terrible against the Saints, who themselves went on to look terrible against the Panthers, then I can have the Week 2 I had.
But not the fear, numbers have been crunched and patterns have been found. For now, let’s call them NFL Nuggets:
- Sunday and Monday Night Games are 4-0 in O/U
- 1:00PM Games are 5-13 O/U
- Totals at and under 45 are 1-8 O/U
- Totals at and over 50 are 7-2 O/U
- Tweeners (45.5-49) are 7-8 O/U – STAY AWAY
- Of the 16 matches featuring ML favorites -200 or higher: the dog has covered 10 of those contests
Carolina Panthers (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U) at Houston Texans (1-1, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U)
Public: 75% Panthers Spread | 83% Panthers Money Line | 55% Under 43.5
Line: Panthers -7.5 | Total: 43.5
Prediction: 27-18 CAR
Actual: TBD
Pick: CAR 1H -4.5 -110 2U (Alex) 43.5 Under 5 units (Dwa)
The Thursday Night game is 2-0 for the over and 2-0 ML for the home team. Carolina’s defense looks legit as they come into this Week 3 contest pitching consecutive halftime shutouts. Those games were in Charlotte so this being their first road game against a very impressive Houston Texans team should put that to the test. Of course, now Tyrod Taylor is out with an injury and in comes 2021 third-round pick Davis Mills from Stanford. Sam Darnold has looked capable, something he had shown flashes of in New York but may have been held back by the lack of talent and weapons – as evidenced by how the current Jets look.
The line is at 43.5 and thus far anytime the line has been under 45, the O/U is 1-7. As there’s too much going on here between the Texans injury bug, two teams we’re still learning a lot about, and the contrasting O/U trends, I’m bowing out of this one. - Ty
The Panthers defense has 10 sacks on the year and I can see them even scoring on a turnover. Texans are starting rookie QB Davis Mills so expect a ‘welcome to the league kid’ type of sack tonight. The best weapon on offense is Brandin Cooks so expect them to be kept in check. Panthers offense should be paced by McCaffrey and DJ Moore so expect them to hold an early lead. I like the spread but I LOVE the 1H spread for the Panthers. 2U love. - Alex
Alright guys, week 2 was a bit rough for me due to MAX betting the Cardinals and the Chiefs but we are back on the horse today. We are backing the under in the Panthers and Texans game. I look to the Texans run heavy due to starting a back up QB. The Panthers defense is very real and their offense is blah. Every prime time game this season has gone over so look for this to be the first under of the season! -Dwa
Washington Football Team (1-1, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U) at Buffalo Bills (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U)
Actual: TBD
Pick: WAS +7 1U (Ty)
Yes, Buffalo is at home. Yes, Buffalo was seen as the darlings of the AFC East and a team looking to take the next step as perennial AFC contenders. I’m just not a believer. Will they make the playoffs? Of course! Do I think it’ll be an easy, breezy road there? Nope, and you don’t believe it will be either. Enter the Washington Still Unnamed Franchise and their gritty defense and never say quit offense behind feel-good-story Taylor Heineicke. Doesn’t this just feel like a close game all the way through? Of teams that’ve had a -200 or higher ML tag, six of them let an underdog cover while the favorite squeezed out a W – 4 dogs covered and won and 5 had favorites cover and win, not including this past Thursday, if you’re wondering. So basically one of these pricey Week 3 favorites gotta let a dog cover and why not throw a bone to this Football Team in need of a name, a new owner, a QB the nation believes in, a WR to take the pressure off Terry McLaurin, and I’m sure many more things on top of that. - Ty
Los Angeles Chargers (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-1, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U)
Actual: TBD
Pick: Mike Williams O5.5 Rec -114 1U (Alex) Chiefs -7 5 Units (Dwa) (1 Unit Shood)
Wide receiver Mike Williams’ role in the offense has been a pleasant surprise this season as they have allowed him to be more than just a deep threat. With 12 & 10 targets in the first two weeks I love him to continue getting this many targets per game. The Chiefs defense has been horrible and the Chargers offense should be in a shootout making this an easy cash. - Alex
Chargers have struggled with the NFC East and the Chiefs haven’t covered yet. Due to that i’ll be riding the Chiefs- Dwa
It’s been a weird start to the chiefs season. I think the correction begins today. You’ll see more pressure on Herbert as he threw 3 INTs already. I think covering by a touchdown is not too much to ask.- Shood
Arizona Cardinals (2-0, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
Actual: TBD
Pick: Arizona -7 3 Units (Dwa)
Like I said last week, the Cardinals are my squad this year so I’ll be riding them most the season. I look for them to smoke the Jags this week after not covering last week- Dwa
Chicago Bears (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) at Cleveland Browns (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U)
Actual: TBD
Pick: David Montgomery O15.5 Carries -130 1U (Alex)
Rookie quarterback Justin Fields makes his first start against the Browns so expect running back David Montgomery should be a fixture early in the game. Especially with the way coach Matt Nagy calls the game I expect him to let the running game pace the offense while Fields gets more acclimated to the NFL game. He has had 16 and 20 carries and I like this trend to continue. - Alex
Atlanta Falcons (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U) at New York Giants (0-2, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
Actual: TBD
Pick: 3 Units NYG -3 (Dwa)
Giants should be 1-1 and cannot afford to lose this game at home to save the season. This is 1000% a fan pick but I cannot see the Giants losing Eli Mannings jersey retirement game!- Dwa
Cincinnati Bengals (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U)
Actual: TBD
Pick: O 43 1 U (Ty)
Using the same nugget from the Pats-Saints game, Pittsburgh and Cincy feel ripe for an over. I know the books are BIG MAD at the Steelers. They plotted on their downfall in Week 1 against the Bills to only lose that - in the 4th quarter, at that. And then when they gave the Steel Curtain their respek in Week 2 playing host to the Raiders, they fell flat there. The ultimate payback is to lower the line from -6.5 to -3 and set the total where they did at 43. This battle between AFC North foes who have offensive potential and defensive question marks, means that a 24-20 score line is easily an expectation, which would put us 1 digit towards the over. - Ty
Baltimore Ravens (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U) at Detroit Lions (0-2, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U)
Actual: TBD
Pick:
I get that both Baltimore and Detroit and 2-0 O/U but I’m a bit baffled as why the line is so high here. The only move here betting wise would be to tease Baltimore down if you liked them but other than that this is a clear pass. But in my version of events, the Ravens do just enough to get by and avoid the trap game while Detroit continues their path of having an impressive drive or quarter following by pure falling apart at the seams. Guess we’ll see what happens here together. - Ty
New York Jets (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U) at Denver Broncos (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U)
Actual: TBD
Pick: Javonte Williams O12.5 Carries +100 1U (Alex), Jets +10 1 Unit (Dwa)
Rookie Javonte Williams has been given consistent opportunities in this Broncos offense and I like that trend to continue especially against this Jets defense. He had 14 and 13 carries through the first two weeks and with the struggling Jets offense going against one of the league’s better secondaries the game script should be in William's’ favor. - Alex
Jets stink and the Broncos have covered both of their games. The Broncos are one of the most bet teams of the week so I'm going against the public and the Jets will get their first cover of the season- Dwa
Miami Dolphins (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
Public: 76% Raiders -3.5; 53% Over 44
Line: Raiders -3.5; 44 O/U
Prediction: 28 Raiders- 22 Fins
Actual: TBD
Pick: No Pick
This is another game that falls in the under 45 category but I would love nothing more than to take the over here. Tua is out for 3 weeks and while Jacoby looked lost last week against Buffalo, I like him as a competent passer of the football more than the man he’s behind in the depth chart to. I think this has shootout in sunny Miami written all of it and it was super duper close to being a lean for me but let’s just keep my pre-game thoughts here and see if I was right when the clocks strike zero. - Ty
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U)
Public: 37% LAR PK; 65% Under 55.5
Line: Pick; 55.5 O/U
Prediction: 27 LAR- 26 Bucs
Actual: TBD
Pick: U 55.5 LEAN (Ty) TB ML 2 Units (Shood)
Two 2-0 teams that have both shattered the over in their contests on this collision path against each other that you’re just hoping meet up again in the playoffs. You’ve heard all about Tampa’s weak secondary that’ll allow Cooper Kupp to run roughshod. The Rams letting up 24 points to a Colts team you’re not sure is even all that, definitely has you penciling Brady in for another 400 yard, 4 TD performance. Of course since I’ll be stressing about the result of the game, I’m for sure not playing it. Yet, I’d advise you to consider the under. Yeah totals over 50 are 7-2 towards the over, but those have been baby totals. The ones at and just under the 55 mark haven’t been as fruitful. This has the makings of two heavy handed fighters with knockout potential trying to feel each other out for a bulk of the match. Only a lean, you can certainly make your own bed with where you side if you’re playing this game but the same letdown the Cowboys and Chargers had last week living up to a 55 total seems ripe here too. -Ty
As much I would like to fade Brady, the rams are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. I think we see TB stay unbeaten in a tight contest- Shood
Seattle Seahawks (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U)
Public: Seahawks -2 69%; 59% Under 54.5
Line: Seahawks -2 : 54.5 O/U
Prediction:
Actual: TBD
Pick: No Pick
Green Bay Packers (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
Actual: TBD
Pick: Deebo Samuel O67.5 Rec Yards -120 1U (Alex), San Francisco ML -170 1U (Ty)(Dwa) 3 units Packers +3.5 (Shood)
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel was leading the NFL in receiving so I am surprised his line isn’t in the 72ish range. He remains very productive in an offense where fellow receiver Brando Aiyuk is trying to get it going this season. Packers defense has been vulnerable this season so expect Deebo to smash this over. - Alex
No need to spend a lot of time here. San Francisco has impressed me. I’m still asking questions about Green Bay. Who are you? Are you the team that got molliwopped in Week 1 by another team we still don’t quite know who they are? Or are you the team that beat up on a division – and league – punching bag but only came alive in the second half? Green Bay’s defense is BASURA. And for an umpteenth year no matter how godly Aaron Rodgers is at quarterbacking it’s not enough to cover the gaping Cheesehead holes that exist on the rest of the Packers roster. Instead of worrying about stylepoints, take what probably will be among the cheapest home favorite 49ers ML (-170) you’ll probably find this season. -Ty'
San Fran is dealing with some injuries and barely got past the Eagles. GB still has one of the best offenses and it’s not often you get to have GB as dogs. Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 September games- Shood
Philadelphia Eagles (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
Actual: TBD
Pick: DeVonta Smith O4.5 Rec +125 1U (Alex), O 51.5 LEAN (Ty) Cowboys - 3.5 1 unit (Shood)
Rookie Wide Receiver DeVonta Smith has been targeted early and often (8 and 7). While Smith’s week 2 wasn’t as productive as week 1, I expect Smith to bounce back against the Cowboys secondary. While Cowboys’ corner Trevon Diggs has performed well this season, I still like Smith to rack of the receptions. -Alex
I promise I don’t think all division matchups are over plays. I really don’t. But I can see Philly and Dallas lighting up Jerry World with points galore. I don’t need to tell you what you’ve already heard about the Cowboys’ defense. And what better way to squash the premature rumblings of everyone crowning Dallas as NFC East champions than to put on a performance like the Eagles did against the Falcons in Week 1. Even a moral victory would be a great coming out party that’ll have all the talking heads signaling the arrival of Jalen Hurts and preaching about how underrated their offense is. While this Thursday ended the streak of all the primetime games going over, the Sunday Night and Monday Night 2-0’s are still strong. I like the over for a game that I believe both teams can easily hit the 30s against one another. -Ty
I don’t think the Eagles can keep up with the Dallas offense. Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Prescott is going to have a field day.- Shood