NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2021
Hi friends. The goal of Week 2 is NOT - I repeat NOT - to overreact to the results from Week 1. But, we’re all human so that’s par for the course. WYE is here to help you make sense of a head-scratching Week 1. To get settled in with the 2021 season - who’s real, who’s fake, what’s the new normal - check out our picks, leans, and analysis below. Best of luck bettors, and let us know what action you're taking too!
Also, before we get into the picks, a couple of things to note. We will clarify if we are betting a certain game or just giving our score prediction, all of our bets will be based on “to win” units thus if we bet 1 unit on a game at -110, it will be 110 to win 100 and so on. Line information via SportsLine
2021 NFL Picks: Dwa 5-1 ($+890) Shood 1-1 ($-10) Ty 0-1 ($-110) Alex 0-0 ($0)
New York Giants (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U) at Washington Football Team (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
Public: 60% WFT -3.5 | 56% Under 41
Line: Football Team -3.5 | Total: 41
Prediction: NYG 24 - WFT 20
Actual: 30-29 WFT
Pick: W NYG +3.5 1 Unit (Dwa) (Shood) | LOSS U 41 1 Unit (Ty) (Shood)
So this is clearly this may be a fan pick but Daniel Jones is only good against one team, WFT. The Giants lost week one 27-13; however, the game was fairly close the whole way. Currently, 55% of the public is on WFT, which means that they are not massive public favorites but that’s enough for me to ride with the house. WFT is starting a backup QB so this is the only game all season where the Giants will have the QB advantage. Take the points. - Dwa
While Taylor Heinicke looked like Jesus Christ against my Bucs in the playoffs, I’m not necessarily sold to where I think he can beat a division rival by a touchdown in a short week. But the Giants didn’t do a lot to inspire confidence last week. Yes, Week 1 is ripe for Week 2 overreactions but I think the best play - if you’re playing this at all - is to take the under. I’ve seen it go down on a few books from 41 to 40.5, so it might be best to snag as soon as possible. -Ty
The Giants only scored 13 points in week 1. They simply just don’t have a good offense. Washington has a good defense and will make Jones uncomfortable. Fitz is also out for Washington so I expect a run-heavy game that will eat into the clock- Shood
Jones has to show out on prime time. After a disappointing week 1, I expect them to come out with some energy. The Giants have had some success against WFT. So I’m betting with the history..don’t sprinkle much on this- Shood
Prop of the Night: Given Washington’s ability to rush the QB and Saquon Barkley still ramping up after missing the entire 2020 season, I like the over on the Daniel Jones’ rushing props. -Ty
DraftKings has a Pass + Rush Yds prop that’s at 262.5 (Over -115). A mark Jones has surpassed 12 of his 28 NFL games - two of which have come against Washington. FanDuel has Danny Dimes’ rushing yards prop at 20.5 (Over -110). Consider these leans as I won’t be playing them despite feeling like it’s low-hanging fruit. - Ty
New Orleans Saints (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 0-1 O/U) at Carolina Panthers (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
Public: 61% Saints -3 | 51% Under 44.5
Line: Saints -3 | Total: 44.5
Prediction: 26 NO - 20 Panthers
Actual: 26-7 CAR
Pick: NO -3 2 Units (Ty)
Carolina did not look very impressive in Week 1 against the Jets. And while, no, I don’t think the Week 1 Saints are who this team will be all season long, they’re good enough to get the job done versus the Panthers. Division matchups especially this early in the season can be nail biters as teams just want to get to 1-0 in the race more than they care about style points. The game should be competitive, but the Saints cover the spread. – Ty
Cincinnati Bengals (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 1-0 O/U) at Chicago Bears (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 1-0 O/U)
Public: 61% Bengals +1.5 | 58% Under 44.5
Line: Bears -1.5 | Total: 44.5
Prediction: 27 Bears - 24 Bengals
Actual: 20-17 CHI
Pick: CIN +2.5 1 Unit (Ty)
I have a crush on Cincy, sorta like the crush I’ve had on the Detroit Tigers since the All-Star Break. As a lover of barking dogs, a little engine that could is a team I can get behind. Now that Chase has figured out how to see and catch an NFL ball, the Bengals can be an offense that may surprise some. Now admittedly I did have to Google the Bengals D but they shouldn’t have many issues with their old stripped tiger now stealing snaps from Justin Fields, ANDREW Dalton. Supposedly the Bears brass are just learning that Fields is the best QB on the roster. Well until they officially give him QB1 status, I’m fading them. Skyline Chili for the win! – Ty
Houston Texans (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 1-0 O/U) at Cleveland Browns (0-1; 1-0 ATS 1-0 O/U)
Public: -13.5 60% Browns | 66% Over 48
Line: Browns -13.5 | Total: 48
Prediction: 30 Browns - 20 Texans
Actual: 31-21 CLE
Pick: HOU +12.5 LEAN (Ty)
Given all the close spreads, the double-digit ones this week made me cringe. Not that I don’t think they can’t all happen, but we are learning in real time who is for real and who stinks. Some of those teams we think are trash may end up being fairly decent and I’m drinking the Houston Texan Kool-Aid on that one. Now maybe it’s because I write Passing The Baton and want Tyrod to ball out with his opportunity at another starting gig. But I do think they are a team that can play mistake free football and keep a game close – even if it still results in a loss. This is a lean, tail at your own risk, but my Spidey senses say Houston can keep it within 2 touchdowns.
Los Angeles Rams (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 1-0 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
Public: 68% -4 Rams | 62% Under 48
Line: Rams -3.5| Total: 48
Prediction: 28 Rams - 20 Colts
Actual: 27-24 LAR
Pick: NO PICK
The Rams looked godly against the Bears and even your average Matthew Stafford truther can’t possibly have this team slicing through everyone they face. Indy hasn’t won a season opener since 2013 but they’ve fielded some playoff caliber teams throughout those years. This is the ultimate overreaction game: LA isn’t THAT good and IND isn’t that bad. I’m passing on this game and if there was a direction I’d go it’d either be some Rams receiver props or the under. - Ty
Denver Broncos (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 0-1 O/U) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 1-0 O/U)
Public: 72% Broncos -6 | 60% over 45
Line: Broncos -6 | Total: 45
Prediction: 27 Broncos-20 Jaguars
Actual: 23-13 DEN
Pick: Under 45 2 Unit (Dwa) & James O’Shaughnessy O2.5 Rec 1 Unit (Alex)
The Giants terrible offense week one was clearly due to the Broncos defense more than Jason Garrett being the terrible OC that he is. The Jags are terrible but for some reason I have a funny feeling they could backdoor cover this game somehow thus we are rocking with the safer play, under 45!- Dwa
I know tight end James O’Shaughnessy is not a fun name to bet but hear me out. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence targeted James 8 times last week in their game against the Texans. The Denver Broncos should win this game and be in the lead early thus pushing game script to lean to Lawrence throwing a ton, give me the target who only needs 3 receptions to cover - Alex
Buffalo Bills (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U) at Miami Dolphins (1-0; 1-0 ATS)
Public: 73% Bills -3.5 | 57% Under 47.5
Line: Bills -3.5 | Total: 47.5
Prediction: 24 Bills- 20 Dolphins
Actual: 35-0 BUF
Pick: U 47.5 1 Unit (Alex)
The Buffalo Bills have dominated the Miami Dolphins and with their strong defensive performance in week 1, they are poised to keep this score low. Bills will keep Tua in check and should cover the spread (my lean). Tua forced some throws last week against the Patriots, the Bills defense won’t be very forgiving on those either. U47.5 - Alex
New England Patriots (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U) at New York Jets (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
Public: 84% Patriots -6 | 55% Over 43
Line: Patriots -6 l Total: 43
Prediction: 20 Patriots - 17 Jets
Actual: 25-6 NE
Pick: Jonnu Smith O28.5 Receiving Yards 1 Unit (Alex), U 43 1 Unit (Shood)
Tight end Jonnu Smith was targeted 5 times in Week 1 and even got. a carry. The Patriots leaned on him more than their other tight end Hunter Henry and I believe that trend continues. Rookie QBs lean on their tight end and with the New England offense facing off against a Jets defense that allowed 381 yards of total offense, this should cover no sweat (playable up to 31.5) - Alex
Both defenses will have control on this game and we should see multiple turnovers keeping this score low. – Shood
San Francisco 49ers (1-0; 0-1 ATS; 1-0 O/U) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
Public: 64% 49ers -3 | 65% Under 49
Line: 49ers -3 | Total: 49
Prediction: 35 49ers- 31 Eagles
Actual: 17-11 SF
Pick: +3 Eagles 1 Unit (Dwa)
Okay, this hurts my stomach to type but the Eagles may be a lot better than we thought they would be. Hurts has earned the belief of his teammates and I believe it will show today. I want to say Eagles OUTRIGHT but let’s play it safe and take the points. I expect this game to be the beginning of the Jimmy G era in San Fran. - Dwa
Las Vegas Raiders (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 1-0 O/U) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
Public: Steelers -6 64% | 55% Over 46.5
Line: Steelers -6 | Total: 46.5
Prediction: 27 Steelers- 24 Raiders
Actual: 26-17 LV
Pick: Najee Harris O71.5 Rush Yards 1 Unit (Alex), PIT -5.5 2 Units (Ty)
Listen, personally I do not like staying nice things about the Pittsburgh Steelers – besides giving Mike Tomlin his flowers, of course. Last week, everyone and they momma was talmbout the Bills covering, the Steelers terrible O-Line, yada, yada, yah. Now, yes, they looked like bozos for the first half. But they got some Gatorade at halftime and came out and got the job done. I picked Vegas to cover last week because of the Ravens injuries and it being their first game in front of fans in their new stadium. Outside of those factors, I’m not the biggest believer in them, they’re a .500 team with this lineup to be honest. The Steelers are at home in front of their annoying fans – LOL – and cover the spread in a game they should win. - Ty
My Steeler bias aside, Najee Harris’ debut was not the spectacular performance we expect but I would give more credit to the Bills defense than Harris’ inability to get through. Against the Oakland Raiders, this wil be a totally different game. Raiders allowed 189 yards last week against the Baltimore Ravens and this is with Lamar Jackson being their best runner as their RB room has been hit by the injury bug. Harris got 100% of the snaps at running back last week and I believe the usage will continue this week. Roll with the future of the Steelers - Alex
Minnesota Vikings (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 1-0 O/U) at Arizona Cardinals (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
Public: Cardinals -3.5 64% | Over 50.5 35%
Line: Cardinals -3.5 | Total: 50.5
Prediction: 30 Cardinals - 21 Vikings
Actual: 34-33 ARI
Pick: Cardinals -3.5 5 Units (Dwa), O 50.5 2 Units (Ty)
I will keep this short and sweet. Kyler Murray is my pick for MVP and he proved it in Week 1 thus I will not stray from the plan. The Vikings could not even beat the Bengals so why would they beat the Cardinals. If you’re feeling crazy, tease the Cardinals to -6.5. I expect them to win by a touchdown or more. - Dwa
Basically everything Dwa said. Cards are at home, take the over. -Ty
Atlanta Falcons (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0; 0-1 ATS; 1-0 O/U)
Public: 58% Buccaneers-12.5 | 49% Over 51.5
Line: Buccaneers -12.5 | Total: 51.5
Prediction: 35 Bucs- 24 Falcons
Actual: 48-25 TB
Pick: U 53 1 Unit (Shood), Gronkowski Rec Yds O 40.5 & Ronald Jones Rush Yds O 40.5 0.5 Units Each (Ty)
I do not think ATL scores enough to push this over. Tampa will get a huge lead and slow the game down in the second half – Shood
I’ll be at this game. As I said before anything goes in division matchups, the teams know each other well and all that matters is getting the win. I can see Atlanta covering but I understand if everyone is very much off believing the Falcons can do anything with the egg they laid in Week 1 versus the Eagles. The fan in me just wants a win, y’all can worry about the margin. Go Bucs! - Ty
Dallas Cowboys (0-1; 1-0 ATS; 1-0 O/U) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
Public: 54% Dallas +3 | 65% Under 55
Line: Chargers -3 | Total: 55
Prediction: 34 Cowboys- 31 Chargers
Actual: 20-17 DAL
Pick: DAL +3 1 Unit (Ty), O 55 LEAN (Ty)
The Chargers are on their way to being a formidable team. They’re a bit young in the tooth and need to work their way to being able to consistently beat other quality NFL teams. Meanwhile, for as much as Dak can will the Cowboys to competency, Dallas’ defense will continue to be the Achilles heel for Jerry Jones’ squad. Gimme Dallas pulling out a close win and a lean on the over. – Ty
Tennessee Titans (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
Public: 50% -6 Seahawks | 67% Over 54
Line: Seahawks -6 | Total: 54
Prediction: 28 Seahawks- 22 Titans
Actual: 33-30 TEN
Pick: Titans +6 1 Unit (Dwa)
The Seahawks beat a bland Colts team last week and the Titans were smacked by my Cardinals so you would think the Seahawks are a lock right? Wrong! The Titans are a good team and I expect Vrabel to have his guys ready after an embarrassing showing. I’m not sure Titans will win however I expect them to cover 6 points! - Dwa
Kansas City Chiefs (1-0; 0-1 ATS; 1-0 O/U) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 1-0 O/U)
Public: 74% Chiefs -3.5 | 60% Under 53.5
Line: Chiefs -3.5 | Total: 53.5
Prediction: 28 Chiefs- Ravens
Actual: 36-35 BAL
Pick: Chiefs -3.5 3 units (Dwa) 2 Units (Shood)
I think the Ravens are going to have a tough time with all of their injuries this season. I love Lamar Jackson but expect the media to kill him after he drops to 0-2 this season. Take the Chiefs to win fairly easily. - Dwa
Ravens are hurt and Mahomes has dominated in the month of September throughout his career. No further explanation needed, lay the points. – Shood
Detroit Lions (0-1; 1-0 ATS; 1-0 O/U) at Green Bay Packers (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
Public: 62% Packers -11.5 | 63% Under 48.5
Line: Packers -11.5 | Total: 48.5
Prediction: 28 Packers - 20 Lions
Actual: 35-17 GB
Pick: NO PICK
Yeah, this game is yucky. Detroit backdoored to cover last week against the Niners but spent the bulk of the game looking like the Detroit Lions. And Green Bay had maybe the worst game in their franchise’s history in Week 1. Conventional wisdom says the Packers and Lions will go back to form, hence the line here but if you don’t have to play it then don’t. If the Packers cover this, good for them but we need to see them wipe a lot of the grime from this offseason off before laying anything on them. - Ty