NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2021
Tail at your own risk, and let us know how we did. Follow the crew on the Bird App: Alex, Dwa, Shood, Ty. Good luck and let’s make some money!
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Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U) at Miami Dolphins (2-7, 3-6 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
Line: BAL -8.5 | Total: O/U 46
Actual: MIA 22-10
Pick: NO PICK
Atlanta Falcons (4-4, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2, 7-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U)
Line: DAL -8 | Total: O/U 54.5
Actual: DAL 43-3
Pick: O 10.5 First Quarter 0.5U (Ty)
I like the over here, it’ll be a game time decision as to if I play it but I do like it. Matt Ryan has found his flow a bit only throwing to Patterson and Pitts. Dallas is Dallas - minus last week’s showing. And when the line is 46.5 or more, Atlanta is 2-1 on the road for over while Dallas is 3-1 at home. If you want to do the Ty method of dipping your toe with the first quarter (10.5) or first half (27.5) then please be my guest. - Ty
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6, 3-5 ATS, 2-6 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U)
Line: IND -10 | Total: O/U 47.5
Actual: IND 23-17
Pick: NO PICK
I understand the line being where it is but my Spidey Senses are telling me NAH. While the Colts ATS record says they’re maybe a bit better than their 4-5 straight up record would seem to tell you, this is a divisional matchup - which means anything can happen - AND I am a believer in the Jags because I love dogs. Not sure if I can actually play or even lean Jags spread but just know I was thinking about it. - Ty
Cleveland Browns (5-4, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U) at New England Patriots (5-4, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
Line: NE -2.5 | Total: O/U 45
Actual: NE 45-7
Pick: NE First Half ML LEAN (Ty)
I’ll keep it short, I like the Pats here. They’ve turned the corner from the beginning of the season to really become a tough squad to play. And part of how you know this is because they’re literally the Spider Man meme with the Browns in terms of straight up and ATS record. That’s not a good thing for Cleveland who many expected to take a step towards firmly grasping the AFC North title. Plus I feel like Bill has his exes circled on the calendar years in advance because he’s petty like that. - Ty
Buffalo Bills (5-3, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U) at New York Jets (2-6, 2-6 ATS, 5-3 O/U)
Line: BUF -13 | Total: O/U 47.5
Actual: BUF 45-17
Pick: U 47.5 LEAN, U 9.5 First Quarter 0.5U (Ty)
Did you know this is the first Jets game with a line of 46.5 or higher? Buffalo has had 7 such games and is sporting a 2-5 O/U record in them. So you know, the treasurer of the Under Gang Club - me - loves the under here. I want to, really really want to, believe the Jets can pull more upset magic out from their sleeves but that might be a lil’ too spicy for my tastes. - Ty
Detroit Lions (0-8, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
Line: PIT -6.5 | Total: O/U 41
Actual: Tie 16-16
Pick: DET ML 1U (Ty)
TODAY IS THE DAY! Our little cubs become LIONS! One because fuck Mason Rudolph, respectfully. Two because the Lions are near their annual Thanksgiving game and cannot possibly afford to be winless heading into that. I do like any Najee Harris player props too but give me the DETROIT LIONS MONEYLINE. All chips in. - Ty
New Orleans Saints (5-3, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U) at Tennessee Titans (7-2, 7-2 ATS, 5-4 O/U)
Line: TEN -3 | Total: O/U 43.5
Actual: TEN 23-21
Pick: NO PICK
Don’t really have an opinion here. As a Saints hater, I’m happy anytime they lose so go Titans. But I also had to pick up Siemian in my keeper league because we are in a CRISIS at the QB position, so go him. This is a I hope both teams have fun kinda game. - Ty
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U) at Washington Football Team (2-6, 1-7 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
Line: TB -10 | Total: O/U 50.5
Actual: WAS 29-19
Pick: NO PICK
The only spreads the Bucs have covered have been when they are favored by double digits. Washington is 1-7 ATS. Tampa’s also off a bye week. The fan in me says Washington covers, we win outright. But go with your heart on this one. I do think my boy Tyler Johnson is going off today if anyone wants to have a lil fun in the player props. - Ty
Carolina Panthers (4-5, 4-5 ATS, 2-7 O/U) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1, 7-2 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
Line: ARI -9.5 | Total: O/U 43
Actual: CAR 34-10
Pick: O 43 0.5U (Ty)
Dunno if Zona covers but there has to be no way in hell Carolina wins. As much as I have luv for PJ, it’s the Cards. 43 feels really low - even if the Panthers are 0-3 for the under when the total is between 39.5-43. So I’ll lean the over and figure out if I really wanna lay the 10 for the spread. Game time decision. - Ty
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-3, 5-3 ATS, 3-4-1 O/U)
Line: LAC -3 | Total: O/U 53.5
Actual: MIN 27-20
Pick: Tyler Conkin O36.5 Rec Yards -114 1.14U (Alex)
I don’t have a very solid grasp on who the VIkings are. Are they good or not?! The Chargers are somewhat in that same territory but we understand a little more between Herbert being in Year 2 and having a new HC and OC. I’d lean Chargers but not enough to actually play it, seems like a fun player prop game though. - Ty
Conklin has done well stepping in as the starting tight end for Minnesota. In his last 3 games he has seen 7 targets twice (5 times the other) and has had at least 45 in those games. Cousins has gained confidence in his tight end and the line is too low. - Alex
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U) at Denver Broncos (5-4, 5-4 ATS, 2-7 O/U)
Line: DEN -1.5 | Total: O/U 45
Actual: PHI 30-13
Pick: Parlay PHI ML LEAN & U 45 0.5U (Ty)
Hammer the under. These two teams are a combined 1-4 when the total is between 43.5-46. I like Philly here big time and don’t think Denver keeps up enough to make it go over. - Ty
Seattle Seahawks (3-5, 5-3 ATS, 2-6 O/U) at Green Bay Packers (7-2, 8-1 ATS, 2-7 O/U)
Line: GB -3.5 | Total: O/U 49.5
Actual: GB 17-0
Pick: GB -3.5 in 6pt Teaser with LAR Spread 2U (Ty)
Sure Russell Wilson is back, but even when he was there the Seahawks were doing their best Packers impersonation asking Russ to put the team on his back. The Packers are still that kinda team but they just win more lol. Gimme Pack here and Aaron Rodgers doing a few Discount Double Checks to silence the PC Woke Culture Mob he was just fighting against. - Ty
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4, 2-7 ATS, 4-4-1 O/U) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
Line: KC -2.5 | Total: O/U 52
Actual: KC 41-14
Pick: NO PICK
This is an important game for KC if they wanna have any chance at making up for what’s been a season from hell on the field. The 2021 Raiders are the textbook definition of a season from hell off the field. Both teams need a win here for completely different reasons. My gut tells me it’s more of the same for KC and Vegas pulls it out in an emotional, game winning TD as the clocks strike zeros fashion. Other than that no plays here for me. - Ty